CAJ | 학술논문

针对城市公交系统的复杂性和随机性，应用灰色理论建立了公交车运行时间的多变量灰色预测模型（MGM（1，n）），对晴天高峰时段、雨天高峰时段和平峰时段的公交车运行时间进行预测。预测结果表明：不同时段公交车运行时间预测的平均相对误差均在5％以内，模型精度等级符合预测要求。
침대성시공교계통적복잡성화수궤성，응용회색이론건립료공교차운행시간적다변량회색예측모형（MGM（1，n）），대청천고봉시단、우천고봉시단화평봉시단적공교차운행시간진행예측。예측결과표명：불동시단공교차운행시간예측적평균상대오차균재5％이내，모형정도등급부합예측요구。
Public transport is an important means of transportation for residents and advanced public transportation system includes good prediction of bus travel time that promises efficiency for residents'travel. Aiming at the randomness and complexity of the public transportation the multi?variable gray prediction model MGM 1 n was built based on the gray theory and tested for its accuracy in predicting the bus travel time at peak hours on sunny days and rainy days and at non?peak hours. The results show that the average relative error of the model is less than 5% and the level of accuracy meets the requirement.