CAJ | 학술논문

我国于2014年起在全国范围推广实行“单独二孩”计划生育新政策，本文意在分析该政策对于增长极地区的影响。以深圳市为例，建立增长极地区人口预测模型，对“单独二孩”政策对人口总量、结构的效应进行评估。分析表明，“单独二孩”政策会对增长极地区的人口数量、结构产生一定积极影响，但不会改变增长极地区人口发展的总体趋势。由于存在大量以年轻人为主的迁移人口，增长极地区将保持较低的人口老龄化程度，其当前的主要工作是合理、有效地将迁移人口纳入社会保障体系。
아국우2014년기재전국범위추엄실행“단독이해”계화생육신정책，본문의재분석해정책대우증장겁지구적영향。이심수시위례，건립증장겁지구인구예측모형，대“단독이해”정책대인구총량、결구적효응진행평고。분석표명，“단독이해”정책회대증장겁지구적인구수량、결구산생일정적겁영향，단불회개변증장겁지구인구발전적총체추세。유우존재대량이년경인위주적천이인구，증장겁지구장보지교저적인구노령화정도，기당전적주요공작시합리、유효지장천이인구납입사회보장체계。
Since 2014,the policy of Selective two-child has been implemented in China. The author aims to analyze the new policy effect to the growth pole region. Taking Shenzhen as an example,the author builds the population prediction model of the growth pole region,and evaluate the new policy effect on total popu-lation and structure. The new policy will have a certain positive impact on the number and the structure of the population of the growth pole region,but it will not change the overall trend of the population develop-ment. Because of the existence of a large number of migration population based on young people,the growth pole region will keep a low degree of aging of. Now the main work of the growth pole region is to take the migration population into the social security system reasonably and effectively.