西北师范大学学报(自然科学版)
西北師範大學學報(自然科學版)
서북사범대학학보(자연과학판)
Journal of Northwest Normal University (Natural Science)
2015年
6期
110-114
,共5页
干旱区绿洲城市%环境承载力指数模型%ORAQI指数模型%灰色预测GM (1 ,1)模型
榦旱區綠洲城市%環境承載力指數模型%ORAQI指數模型%灰色預測GM (1 ,1)模型
간한구록주성시%배경승재력지수모형%ORAQI지수모형%회색예측GM (1 ,1)모형
urban oasis in arid areas%environmental carrying capacity index model%ORAQI exponential model%gray prediction GM (1,1) model
以乌鲁木齐市2001—2012年大气环境中SO2,NO2,PM10作为对象进行环境承载力研究,采用美国橡树岭大气质量指数(ORAQI)模型、环境承载力指数模型和灰色预测GM (1,1)模型等研究方法,探讨了乌鲁木齐市大气环境承载力指数及其影响因素;建立预测模型,得到2013—2020年大气环境承载力指数预测值.结果表明,2001—2012年乌鲁木齐市空气中主要污染物是SO2和PM10,呈现典型的煤烟型污染特征.大气环境质量 IO 指数平均为91,属于“坏”的等级;大气环境承载力指数平均为16.21,处于中等承载等级.预测结果显示,环境承载力指数呈逐年上升趋势,到2020年该指数将达到19.86,处于较高承载等级,表明未来大气环境承载能力水平将有所提高,大气环境质量会得到进一步改善.
以烏魯木齊市2001—2012年大氣環境中SO2,NO2,PM10作為對象進行環境承載力研究,採用美國橡樹嶺大氣質量指數(ORAQI)模型、環境承載力指數模型和灰色預測GM (1,1)模型等研究方法,探討瞭烏魯木齊市大氣環境承載力指數及其影響因素;建立預測模型,得到2013—2020年大氣環境承載力指數預測值.結果錶明,2001—2012年烏魯木齊市空氣中主要汙染物是SO2和PM10,呈現典型的煤煙型汙染特徵.大氣環境質量 IO 指數平均為91,屬于“壞”的等級;大氣環境承載力指數平均為16.21,處于中等承載等級.預測結果顯示,環境承載力指數呈逐年上升趨勢,到2020年該指數將達到19.86,處于較高承載等級,錶明未來大氣環境承載能力水平將有所提高,大氣環境質量會得到進一步改善.
이오로목제시2001—2012년대기배경중SO2,NO2,PM10작위대상진행배경승재력연구,채용미국상수령대기질량지수(ORAQI)모형、배경승재력지수모형화회색예측GM (1,1)모형등연구방법,탐토료오로목제시대기배경승재력지수급기영향인소;건립예측모형,득도2013—2020년대기배경승재력지수예측치.결과표명,2001—2012년오로목제시공기중주요오염물시SO2화PM10,정현전형적매연형오염특정.대기배경질량 IO 지수평균위91,속우“배”적등급;대기배경승재력지수평균위16.21,처우중등승재등급.예측결과현시,배경승재력지수정축년상승추세,도2020년해지수장체도19.86,처우교고승재등급,표명미래대기배경승재능력수평장유소제고,대기배경질량회득도진일보개선.
In this paper , takes SO2 ,NO2 ,PM10 in atmospheric environment of Urumqi City as study object to research the environmental carrying capacity .The environmental carrying capacity index and its influencing factors of Urumqi are discussed by using oak ridge air quality index (ORAQI ) model , environmental carrying capacity index and gray forecasting models GM (1 ,1) , respectively . The predictive model is proposed , and the predictive values of the atmospheric environment carrying capacity index from 2013 to 2020 are obtained based on this model . The results show that the major air pollutants are SO2 and PM10 in Urumqi City during 2001 to 2012 , which is the typical characteristic of coal‐burning pollution . The average atmospheric environment quality ORAQI index is 91 , which means that the atmospheric environment is bad rating . The average atmospheric environment quality index is 16.21 , which means that the atmospheric environment is in the middle load level . T he forecast results show that the environmental carrying capacity index is rising year by year ,which will reaches 19.86 in 2020 at high load rating . This indicate that the carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment will been increased , and the quality of atmospheric environment will be further improved .