CAJ | 학술논문

本文以产业部门为研究对象，以“至2015年全国碳排放强度较2010年下降17％”为碳减排目标对中国产业层面碳排放总量进行分摊，以明确各个产业部门的碳排放责任。基于分配效率的视角，以“非期望产出作投入法”为指导，将各部门碳排放量作为投入变量，能源消耗量、城镇单位就业人员数和总产出作为产出变量，构建了投入导向型的碳排放零和收益DEA分摊模型，并通过预测2015年的数据比较了中国15个产业部门碳排放的BCC效率和ZSG－DEA效率，得到了达到DEA有效边界的分配方案，发现电力／热力／燃气及水生产和供应业、炼焦及石油加工业、采矿业、木材加工及造纸印刷业、食品制造及烟草加工业依次承担着较大的碳排放责任，其余10个产业部门也是未来发展低碳技术的重要部门。
본문이산업부문위연구대상，이“지2015년전국탄배방강도교2010년하강17％”위탄감배목표대중국산업층면탄배방총량진행분탄，이명학각개산업부문적탄배방책임。기우분배효솔적시각，이“비기망산출작투입법”위지도，장각부문탄배방량작위투입변량，능원소모량、성진단위취업인원수화총산출작위산출변량，구건료투입도향형적탄배방령화수익DEA분탄모형，병통과예측2015년적수거비교료중국15개산업부문탄배방적BCC효솔화ZSG－DEA효솔，득도료체도DEA유효변계적분배방안，발현전력／열력／연기급수생산화공응업、련초급석유가공업、채광업、목재가공급조지인쇄업、식품제조급연초가공업의차승담착교대적탄배방책임，기여10개산업부문야시미래발전저탄기술적중요부문。
〔Abstract〕 Taking the industrial sectors as study object , with the objective of “in 2015 , reducing the carbon emission intensity to 17% of that in 2010” , the total carbon emissions are apportioned to clarify the reduction responsibility in the industrial sectors . Guided by the method of an unexpected output as an input , the input-oriented zero-sum-gain data envelopment analysis model is constructed in perspective of allocation efficiencies , where the input variable is the carbon emissions and the output variables are the energy consumptions , employment numbers in urban units and the total outputs . The prediction of data in 2015 shows the BCC efficiency and ZSG-DEA efficien-cy of carbon emissions in 15 industrial sectors in China . The allocation scheme is finally given such that the DEA effective frontier is achieved . According to the computation results , the electricity , heating power , gas and water production/supply sector , coking and petrochemical processing industry , mining industry , timber processing and paper making , food manufacturing sectors/tobacco sectors bear the greater responsibility in emission reductions in turn , and the remaining 10 sectors are also important in the development of low-carbon technology in the future .