西北人口
西北人口
서북인구
Northwest Population Journal
2015年
6期
61-67
,共7页
农民工迁移%新型城镇化%驱动效应%农民工城市沉淀曲线
農民工遷移%新型城鎮化%驅動效應%農民工城市沉澱麯線
농민공천이%신형성진화%구동효응%농민공성시침정곡선
migrant workers’ migration%new-type urbanization%driving effect%a precipitation curve of rural migrant workers in urban
首先运用“农民工城市沉淀曲线”从理论上说明农民工迁移对新型城镇化的驱动效应及阶段性差异。然后以全国30个省（市、区）为数据样本，运用Eviews软件实证分析农民工迁移对新型城镇化的驱动效应及在各地区的差异，结果显示：这种效应就全国来说较弱，但在区域表现上有差异，即在东部不显著而在中西部非常显著。差异的原因就在于各地区“农民工城市沉淀曲线”的发展阶段有差异。据此，文章最后更具针对性地提出了东中西部差别化的农民工迁移及新型城镇化政策建议。
首先運用“農民工城市沉澱麯線”從理論上說明農民工遷移對新型城鎮化的驅動效應及階段性差異。然後以全國30箇省（市、區）為數據樣本，運用Eviews軟件實證分析農民工遷移對新型城鎮化的驅動效應及在各地區的差異，結果顯示：這種效應就全國來說較弱，但在區域錶現上有差異，即在東部不顯著而在中西部非常顯著。差異的原因就在于各地區“農民工城市沉澱麯線”的髮展階段有差異。據此，文章最後更具針對性地提齣瞭東中西部差彆化的農民工遷移及新型城鎮化政策建議。
수선운용“농민공성시침정곡선”종이론상설명농민공천이대신형성진화적구동효응급계단성차이。연후이전국30개성（시、구）위수거양본，운용Eviews연건실증분석농민공천이대신형성진화적구동효응급재각지구적차이，결과현시：저충효응취전국래설교약，단재구역표현상유차이，즉재동부불현저이재중서부비상현저。차이적원인취재우각지구“농민공성시침정곡선”적발전계단유차이。거차，문장최후경구침대성지제출료동중서부차별화적농민공천이급신형성진화정책건의。
Firstly,the article explained the driving effect of migrant workers’ migration to new-type urbanization and periodic differences by using a precipitation curve of rural migrant workers in urban theoretically. Then the driving effects and diversity of migration to new-type urbanization was demonstrated by the datas from 30 provinces(cities, districts) in china and a variety of methods of Eviews empirically. The results show the effect isn’t significant from a national point of view;while regional diversity indicates that isn’t significant in the East and on the contrary in the Midwest. The main reason is that each region has periodic differences in the curve. Finally ,the article concludes with some differential proposals about eastern , central and western migrant workers ’ migration and new-type urbanization specifically.
