CAJ | 학술논문

研发项目代表了高新技术企业的核心竞争力，但是其投资和研发的过程所包含的多种风险可能会造成企业经济上的损失。为了保证竞争优势和收益最大化，企业投资前需要对项目的估值非常的精确，以便在竞争中做出最优投资决策。本文以市场中的两个竞争性企业为例，利用欧式复合期权理论与博弈论，量化了技术风险、商业风险和突发风险等不确定性，在经过了信息披露过程之后，分析了市场中企业自身和竞争者的投资决策，建立相应的研发项目投资决策数学模型，对企业的研发项目投资时机和决策收益进行评估，通过博弈得到纳什均衡下的企业最优投资决策。
연발항목대표료고신기술기업적핵심경쟁력，단시기투자화연발적과정소포함적다충풍험가능회조성기업경제상적손실。위료보증경쟁우세화수익최대화，기업투자전수요대항목적고치비상적정학，이편재경쟁중주출최우투자결책。본문이시장중적량개경쟁성기업위례，이용구식복합기권이론여박혁론，양화료기술풍험、상업풍험화돌발풍험등불학정성，재경과료신식피로과정지후，분석료시장중기업자신화경쟁자적투자결책，건립상응적연발항목투자결책수학모형，대기업적연발항목투자시궤화결책수익진행평고，통과박혁득도납십균형하적기업최우투자결책。
R&D projects represent the core competitiveness of the high-tech enterprises, and there are a variety of risks in investment and research process.In order to keep competitive advantages and maximize the benefits, it needs to be very accurate in valuation of the projects for the optimal investment decisions in the competition before investment.By utilizing the European option value and game theory, quantified technical risk, economic risk and sudden risks, and combined with the jump-diffusion process and information revelation process, after analyzing investment decisions of enterprises themselves and competitors in the market, this paper establishes the corresponding R&D projects investment decision payoff mathematics model which can assess the timing and payoffs of the investment for two enterprises and obtain the optimal investment decisions after Nash equilibrium.