水文
水文
수문
Journal of China Hydrology
2015年
5期
91-96
,共6页
白龙江流域%变化特征%径流%趋势预测
白龍江流域%變化特徵%徑流%趨勢預測
백룡강류역%변화특정%경류%추세예측
Bailongjiang River Basin%variation characteristics%runoff%trend prediction
白龙江引水工程被列入国家确定的172项重大水利工程项目之一，分析研究白龙江干流代表站径流变化特征并进行未来趋势预测，为实施白龙江引水工程提供技术支撑。对白龙江干流白云、舟曲、武都、碧口4个代表站1956~2013年的实测径流系列资料进行分析，采用周期波均值外延叠加模型、谐波分析模型和逐步回归分析模型组合形成的加法模型对代表站未来径流变化趋势进行分析预测。结果表明：(1)该4站9月份多年平均流量占全年径流量比例最大，主汛期6~9月多年平均流量占全年径流量比例达到50%左右。(2)4个水文站多年径流量变化趋势呈现出逐渐缓慢减少的趋势，上游减少的幅度比下游小。(3)预测2015、2020、2025年年径流量的结果是：白云水文站均小于多年平均值，武都水文站均大于多年均值，舟曲和碧口水文站在多年均值上下浮动。
白龍江引水工程被列入國傢確定的172項重大水利工程項目之一，分析研究白龍江榦流代錶站徑流變化特徵併進行未來趨勢預測，為實施白龍江引水工程提供技術支撐。對白龍江榦流白雲、舟麯、武都、碧口4箇代錶站1956~2013年的實測徑流繫列資料進行分析，採用週期波均值外延疊加模型、諧波分析模型和逐步迴歸分析模型組閤形成的加法模型對代錶站未來徑流變化趨勢進行分析預測。結果錶明：(1)該4站9月份多年平均流量佔全年徑流量比例最大，主汛期6~9月多年平均流量佔全年徑流量比例達到50%左右。(2)4箇水文站多年徑流量變化趨勢呈現齣逐漸緩慢減少的趨勢，上遊減少的幅度比下遊小。(3)預測2015、2020、2025年年徑流量的結果是：白雲水文站均小于多年平均值，武都水文站均大于多年均值，舟麯和碧口水文站在多年均值上下浮動。
백룡강인수공정피렬입국가학정적172항중대수리공정항목지일，분석연구백룡강간류대표참경류변화특정병진행미래추세예측，위실시백룡강인수공정제공기술지탱。대백룡강간류백운、주곡、무도、벽구4개대표참1956~2013년적실측경류계렬자료진행분석，채용주기파균치외연첩가모형、해파분석모형화축보회귀분석모형조합형성적가법모형대대표참미래경류변화추세진행분석예측。결과표명：(1)해4참9월빈다년평균류량점전년경류량비례최대，주신기6~9월다년평균류량점전년경류량비례체도50%좌우。(2)4개수문참다년경류량변화추세정현출축점완만감소적추세，상유감소적폭도비하유소。(3)예측2015、2020、2025년년경류량적결과시：백운수문참균소우다년평균치，무도수문참균대우다년균치，주곡화벽구수문참재다년균치상하부동。
The Bailongjiang water diversion has been determined as one of the 172 large-scale water projects by the government, which can be offered a technological support by analyzing the runoff variation characteristics of the representative stations on the mainstream of the Bailongjiang River and predicting the change trend. Based on the observed runoff data from the 4 representative stations (Baiyun, Zhouqu, Wudu and Bikou) on the mainstream of the Bailongjiang River from 1956 to 2013, we made an analysis and forecast of the change tendency of the runoff by using an additive model combined with 3 models (the model of periodic wave mean epitaxial superposition, the model of harmonic analysis and the model of stepwise regression analysis). The results show that (1) the long-term average flow in September usually takes the highest percentage of the total in the whole year at the 4 stations, the long-term average flow from June to September often reach 50% of the total in the whole year; (2) there is a decreasing trend of the mean annual discharge at the 4 stations, of which reduction is less at the upstream stations (Baiyun, Zhouqu) than that at the downstream stations (Wudu, Bikou); (3) the prediction results of the annual runoff in 2015, 2020 and 2025 is that the runoff will be less than the long-term average runoff at the Baiyun station, more than the long-term average runoff at the Wudu station, and the annual runoff will float up or down the long-term average runoff at the stations of Zhouqu and Bikou.
