CAJ | 학술논문

极端洪水事件的频率分析往往局限于单个站点，当研究区域内包含多个水文站点时，单变量频率分析方法，会导致低估或高估洪灾风险率。因此，需要进行区域频率分析。传统区域重现期计算方法，同一重现期对应多种设计洪水组合，而基于Kendall分布函数的重现期计算方法(KRP)有效的解决了这一问题。故本文引入三维非对称Copula分布函数拟合区域内各个站点年最大流量的相关关系，利用半参数法估计Copula函数的参数，并采用KRP推求区域洪水发生的重现期。结果表明：区域发生T年一遇的洪水概率远远大于单个站点发生T年一遇的洪水概率；KRP克服了实测序列较短的问题，且能准确估算洪水重现期。本研究为防洪部门制定防洪措施提供一定的科学依据。
겁단홍수사건적빈솔분석왕왕국한우단개참점，당연구구역내포함다개수문참점시，단변량빈솔분석방법，회도치저고혹고고홍재풍험솔。인차，수요진행구역빈솔분석。전통구역중현기계산방법，동일중현기대응다충설계홍수조합，이기우Kendall분포함수적중현기계산방법(KRP)유효적해결료저일문제。고본문인입삼유비대칭Copula분포함수의합구역내각개참점년최대류량적상관관계，이용반삼수법고계Copula함수적삼수，병채용KRP추구구역홍수발생적중현기。결과표명：구역발생T년일우적홍수개솔원원대우단개참점발생T년일우적홍수개솔；KRP극복료실측서렬교단적문제，차능준학고산홍수중현기。본연구위방홍부문제정방홍조시제공일정적과학의거。
Traditional flood frequency method mainly focuses on one gauging station. If series gauging stations located in the same region and there are some dependence among them, at-site frequency analysis method may lead to overestimating or underestimating the regional flood risk. Therefore, it is great need to apply regional flood frequency analysis instead of at-site flood frequency analysis. In this paper, we introduced trivariate asymmetric Copula function to establish the joint distribution of annual maximum flow. The multivariate return periods were calculated based on Copulas and the Kendall’s measures. Results show that the occurrence probability of T-year flood in the region is much higher than the probability of that at site.