CAJ | 학술논문

太阳辐照度区间预测是光伏发电区间预测的基础。然而我国现在并未开展太阳辐照度的区间预测，为了更好地掌握气象信息，给光伏出力预测提供更多数据支持，提出一种基于集对分析理论的太阳辐照度区间构建方法。在经过数据预处理、主成分提取后，分别建立相似日辐照度与主因素集对、相似日主因素与待预测日主集对计算相似日主因素与待预测日主因素的同异反距离模型并进行计算，最后使用覆盖率评价方法的效果。实例表明了所提方法的有效性。
태양복조도구간예측시광복발전구간예측적기출。연이아국현재병미개전태양복조도적구간예측，위료경호지장악기상신식，급광복출력예측제공경다수거지지，제출일충기우집대분석이론적태양복조도구간구건방법。재경과수거예처리、주성분제취후，분별건립상사일복조도여주인소집대、상사일주인소여대예측일주집대계산상사일주인소여대예측일주인소적동이반거리모형병진행계산，최후사용복개솔평개방법적효과。실례표명료소제방법적유효성。
The solar irradiance range prediction is the basis of photovoltaic generation range prediction. However, there is no solar irradiance range forecast business in China. In order to grasp more meteorological information and provide more support for photovoltaic generation prediction, this paper proposes an irradiance interval prediction method based on the theory of set pairs. After data processing and principal component extraction, the paper con?structed pairs of similar days’ irradiance and main factor and of similar days ‘ main factor and future days’ main factor, calculated identical discrepancy contrary ( IDC) , and finally evaluated effect with coverage index. The test samples verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.