CAJ | 학술논문

通过对1996～2012年天津市经济增长、能源消费进行分析，发现减少天津市CO2排放对其低碳城市建设有着重要的意义。通过计算天津市CO2排放量，运用LMDI法分解影响CO2排放的因素，探索了天津市二氧化碳减排政策。结果表明，天津市能源消费量保持上升形势，且终端消费能源结构以煤炭为主。能源消耗量的增多必然会导致天津市CO2排放的迅速增多，其中，第二产业对能源消耗产生的CO2中贡献最大，决定了全市CO2排放增长的形势。人均GDP和能源强度效应的累积贡献量相对较大，而能源消费结构以及产业结构累计贡献量相对较小，且拉动和减缓作用交替出现。优化天津市能源结构和产业结构是发展低碳经济的根本路径。
통과대1996～2012년천진시경제증장、능원소비진행분석，발현감소천진시CO2배방대기저탄성시건설유착중요적의의。통과계산천진시CO2배방량，운용LMDI법분해영향CO2배방적인소，탐색료천진시이양화탄감배정책。결과표명，천진시능원소비량보지상승형세，차종단소비능원결구이매탄위주。능원소모량적증다필연회도치천진시CO2배방적신속증다，기중，제이산업대능원소모산생적CO2중공헌최대，결정료전시CO2배방증장적형세。인균GDP화능원강도효응적루적공헌량상대교대，이능원소비결구이급산업결구루계공헌량상대교소，차랍동화감완작용교체출현。우화천진시능원결구화산업결구시발전저탄경제적근본로경。
With the rapid development of China ’ s economy , the energy consumption gradual-ly increases, and more and more importance is given to the environment problem caused by large amounts of CO2 emissions.Through analyzing the economy growth and energy consump-tion in Tianjin during 1996~2012, it is found that reducing CO 2 of Tianjin has important im-plications for its low carbon city construction .By calculating the CO 2 emissions of Tianjin and studying on the decomposition of carbon emission factors by the logarithmic mean Divisia index method ( LMDI) , the CO2 emission reduction policies of Tianjin are explored .The re-sults show that the energy consumption of Tianjin keeps increasing and the terminal energy consumption structure is mainly based on coal .The increase of energy consumption leads to the rapid increase in CO 2 emissions in Tianjin .The second industry is the largest contribu-tion in the CO2 emissions created by energy consumption , and it determines the city ’ s situa-tion of CO2 emissions.The cumulative contribution of the per capita GDP and the energy in-tensity effect are relatively large , while the cumulative contribution of the energy consumption structure and the industrial structure of rate are comparatively small , and it appears pull and slow effect alternately .Optimizing the energy structure and industrial structure of Tianjin is a fundamental path of low -carbon economy development .