CAJ | 학술논문

社会保障水平对人口结构会产生重要作用。本文建立了社会保障水平与人口结构从微观到宏观的理论模型，并通过GMM面板模型对中国以及东盟相关国家1995－2013年的数据进行了实证分析。实证分析结果表明，由于近些年来中国以及东盟国家社会保障水平不断提高，使得社会保障替代率也随之上升，社会保障替代率的增加对婚姻的形成和总和生育率都产生了一种下降的激励，并且这种下降的激励不能够在跨期中被抵消和代际转移。最后针对中国实际提出相应政策建议。
사회보장수평대인구결구회산생중요작용。본문건립료사회보장수평여인구결구종미관도굉관적이론모형，병통과GMM면판모형대중국이급동맹상관국가1995－2013년적수거진행료실증분석。실증분석결과표명，유우근사년래중국이급동맹국가사회보장수평불단제고，사득사회보장체대솔야수지상승，사회보장체대솔적증가대혼인적형성화총화생육솔도산생료일충하강적격려，병차저충하강적격려불능구재과기중피저소화대제전이。최후침대중국실제제출상응정책건의。
Social security has played an important role in demographic structure. This paper found micro?to?macro benchmark about social security level and demographic structure, empirical analysis based on the data of China and ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2013 by GMM model. Empirical conclusions have shown that social security replacement rates are raised because social security level was increasing in China and ASEAN countries in recent years. Social security replacement rates depress total fertility rate and family married status by the change of social security rate, and can’ t be fully neutralized by counteracting inter?temporal or intergenerational transfers. Policy suggestions based on the analysis are proposed.