CAJ | 학술논문

针对军械器材储存期限测算任务量大、时间紧迫，批量建模时与环境因素相关的回归项尤其是非线，项难以确定，因素间的多重共线，难以消除等问题，提出了一种基于 Gram-Schmidt 回归的军械器材储存期限测算方法。该方法可在众多备选非线，项中依次找到关键的影响因素，并利用消减投影分量的方法消除多重共线，的不良影响；利用该方法可批量构建储存期限测算模型，且测算流程规范、统一，易于编程实现。最后以橡胶类军械器材为例对该方法进行了验证，结果表明：批量建模选出的非线，项与 Dakin 寿命方程相符，测算的常温下天然橡胶的储存期限值与出厂值相符。
침대군계기재저존기한측산임무량대、시간긴박，비량건모시여배경인소상관적회귀항우기시비선，항난이학정，인소간적다중공선，난이소제등문제，제출료일충기우 Gram-Schmidt 회귀적군계기재저존기한측산방법。해방법가재음다비선비선，항중의차조도관건적영향인소，병이용소감투영분량적방법소제다중공선，적불량영향；이용해방법가비량구건저존기한측산모형，차측산류정규범、통일，역우편정실현。최후이상효류군계기재위례대해방법진행료험증，결과표명：비량건모선출적비선，항여 Dakin 수명방정상부，측산적상온하천연상효적저존기한치여출엄치상부。
In order to overcome the difficulty of selecting the suitable regression items especially the non-linear regression items and eliminating the influence of multicollinearity when conducting mass modeling tasks,an ordnance equipment shelf life calculation method using Gram-Schmidt regression is put forward. This method can select the critical modeling items in all the available items in turn,and the influence of multicollinearity can be eliminated by deducting the orthogonal components.Mass of shelf life prediction models can be developed in this method,and the process is very standardized and easy programming.Fi-nally,an example of predicting rubber type of ordnance equipment is taken to test and verify the method. Results show that the nonlinear terms of regression model selected by modeling process is consistent with Dakin equation,and the predicted values of natural rubber shelf life are coordinated with factory settings.