CAJ | 학술논문

对近十年来C?D生产函数、投入产出、可计算一般均衡（ CGE ）三种经济模型用于人口红利研究的文献进行了述评，从理论基础、变量系数、方程特色以及政策分析的优劣势几方面做了较详细的描述和比较。指出当前中国人口转变迅速发展，人口红利的测算不应仅仅从劳动年龄人口比重提高和人口抚养比下降的角度分析，有必要将正处于深刻变革的社会经济结构以及体制纳入人口红利的经济学分析框架。 CGE方法将多个相互作用的经济主体和多个市场联系起来，擅长模拟政策冲击对经济系统产生的效应，能比较全面地反映结构转变和制度变迁对人口红利及经济增长的影响。同时，基于C?D生产函数法和投入产出法的人口红利研究，为人口因素引入CGE模型奠定了重要的理论和数据基础。
대근십년래C?D생산함수、투입산출、가계산일반균형（ CGE ）삼충경제모형용우인구홍리연구적문헌진행료술평，종이론기출、변량계수、방정특색이급정책분석적우열세궤방면주료교상세적묘술화비교。지출당전중국인구전변신속발전，인구홍리적측산불응부부종노동년령인구비중제고화인구무양비하강적각도분석，유필요장정처우심각변혁적사회경제결구이급체제납입인구홍리적경제학분석광가。 CGE방법장다개상호작용적경제주체화다개시장련계기래，천장모의정책충격대경제계통산생적효응，능비교전면지반영결구전변화제도변천대인구홍리급경제증장적영향。동시，기우C?D생산함수법화투입산출법적인구홍리연구，위인구인소인입CGE모형전정료중요적이론화수거기출。
This paper reviews the economic and related studies of demographic dividend in past decade. The development methods of related studies of demographic dividend were categorized into three types: C?D production function, Input?output model and Computable General Equilibrium. The characteristics and the adaptability of each type were described and compared. Along with the rapid development of economy and demographic transition, structure change and institutional transition should be accounted for the measuring index of the demographic dividend. CGE looks at the economy as a complete system of interdependent components. And models which attempt to capture all these interdependencies require two types of data: input?output tables and behavioral parameters.