CAJ | 학술논문

首先提出构建队列终身二孩生育意愿方法，并以2012－2014年中国家庭幸福感热点问题调查数据为基础，对我国育龄人群生育意愿与生育计划进行测量。研究发现，育龄人群意愿生育水平较低且保持稳定，全部育龄人群的二孩终身生育意愿稳定在55％左右，而单独的生育意愿更低，明确打算生育二孩的单独育龄夫妇不到30％，而明确不打算生育二孩的单独育龄妇女超过40％。根据目前的调查结果，考虑到三孩及以上意愿生育人群比例的下降，取消生育限制与实行全面二孩政策的差别不大。即使二孩生育意愿与生育计划之间不存在差距，以往把理想子女数和有偏差的二孩生育意愿作为实际的生育水平来进行判断也是有误的。
수선제출구건대렬종신이해생육의원방법，병이2012－2014년중국가정행복감열점문제조사수거위기출，대아국육령인군생육의원여생육계화진행측량。연구발현，육령인군의원생육수평교저차보지은정，전부육령인군적이해종신생육의원은정재55％좌우，이단독적생육의원경저，명학타산생육이해적단독육령부부불도30％，이명학불타산생육이해적단독육령부녀초과40％。근거목전적조사결과，고필도삼해급이상의원생육인군비례적하강，취소생육한제여실행전면이해정책적차별불대。즉사이해생육의원여생육계화지간불존재차거，이왕파이상자녀수화유편차적이해생육의원작위실제적생육수평래진행판단야시유오적。
Based on the construction of the cohort second childbirth expectation and taking the 2012, 2013 and 2014 data of Happiness of Chinese Family as example, this paper has measured the second childbirth expectation and the birth plan of the fertility age population of Chinese. We found the fertility age population of Chinese has relative low and stable second childbirth expectation. It is about 55% of the fertility age population expected to have the second child. Comparing with the all fertility age population, the couples with one spouse being an only child has much lower fertility expectation. Only 30% of the couples with one spouse being an only child have the clearly expectation to have the second child and more than 40% of them do not want the second child. Considering on the probability of the third child and above is very low, the differences between no family planning policy and the second child policy are not very big. Even if there is no difference between the second birth expectation and the real birth plan, it will make wrong conclusion for some researches taking the ideal number of children or fertility expectation as fertility plan.