CAJ | 학술논문

针对基于传统三次指数平滑法转速预测精度较低的问题,提出了基于最优平滑系数三次指数平滑法的转速预测方法。该方法根据已知的转速序列曲线,对平滑系数在其取值范围内进行搜索寻优,以预测转速的均方误差作为寻优目标函数,根据已知转速曲线的不同变化趋势,分段寻优并拟合得到目标函数与平滑系数间的函数关系,进而得到各段局部最优平滑系数,对局部最优平滑系数求和取平均值作为全段转速曲线的最优平滑系数,将最优平滑系数应用于工程,得到基于最优平滑系数的转速预测结果。验证结果表明,基于最优平滑系数三次指数平滑法的转速预测均方误差σ=0.0486,且算法可以实现快速响应,能够满足工程要求。
침대기우전통삼차지수평활법전속예측정도교저적문제,제출료기우최우평활계수삼차지수평활법적전속예측방법。해방법근거이지적전속서렬곡선,대평활계수재기취치범위내진행수색심우,이예측전속적균방오차작위심우목표함수,근거이지전속곡선적불동변화추세,분단심우병의합득도목표함수여평활계수간적함수관계,진이득도각단국부최우평활계수,대국부최우평활계수구화취평균치작위전단전속곡선적최우평활계수,장최우평활계수응용우공정,득도기우최우평활계수적전속예측결과。험증결과표명,기우최우평활계수삼차지수평활법적전속예측균방오차σ=0.0486,차산법가이실현쾌속향응,능구만족공정요구。
For three exponential smoothing method based on traditional low speed prediction accuracy problems, a speed prediction based on optimal smoothing parameter cubic exponential smoothing method was presented in this paper.It was based on the known sequence speed curve smoothing coefficient to search optimization within their ranges.To take the mean square error speed prediction as optimization objective function,depending on the known trends of speed curve,segmentation,optimization and fitting function of the objective function with smooth coefficients was abtained.The local optimal smoothing coefficient for each segment of the local optimal smoothing coefficient wes averaged summed as the optimal speed curve.Smoothing factor of the whole paragraph and the optimal smoothing coefficients were used to get the speed prediction.Experimental results showed that the speed prediction based on optimal smoothing factor of three exponential smoothing could achieve rapid re-sponse to meet the engineering requirements.