CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规地面气象观测资料及欧洲 EC、美国 GFS 和 T639数值预报产品分析了2014年1月30日至2月2日（春节期间）江苏淮北地区日最高气温预报明显高于实况的可能原因。结果表明：2014年江苏淮北地区春节期间对流层中低层强暖平流有利于大幅升温，期间低云较多、雾较浓且空气污染较重，减弱了到达地面的太阳辐射，地面气温较低，吸收大气热量，对暖平流的升温有明显的抵消作用，不利于淮北地区的大幅升温，甚至造成局地降温，垂直方向的温度层结上易出现逆温。当逆温层维持时，层结较稳定，地面风力较小，不利于空气中污染物和水汽的扩散，雾霾加重，形成一个降温正反馈机制。低云和雾霾及逆温层对地面气温的变化有重要影响。造成此次最高气温预报失误的主要原因为，模式预报的形势场与实况存在较大差异，未充分考虑近地层的相对湿度条件，预报的云量少于实况；对白天雾霾的降温效应估算过低；强暖平流增强850 hPa 气温时，当地面气温较低时，地面吸收大气热量，升温不明显，850 hPa 温度与地面气温变化的对应关系减弱，过高估算了强暖平流的升温作用；对 EC 和 GFS 等模式2 m 气温数值预报产品过度依赖，未对形势和要素的数值模式预报结果进行检验。
이용상규지면기상관측자료급구주 EC、미국 GFS 화 T639수치예보산품분석료2014년1월30일지2월2일（춘절기간）강소회북지구일최고기온예보명현고우실황적가능원인。결과표명：2014년강소회북지구춘절기간대류층중저층강난평류유리우대폭승온，기간저운교다、무교농차공기오염교중，감약료도체지면적태양복사，지면기온교저，흡수대기열량，대난평류적승온유명현적저소작용，불리우회북지구적대폭승온，심지조성국지강온，수직방향적온도층결상역출현역온。당역온층유지시，층결교은정，지면풍력교소，불리우공기중오염물화수기적확산，무매가중，형성일개강온정반궤궤제。저운화무매급역온층대지면기온적변화유중요영향。조성차차최고기온예보실오적주요원인위，모식예보적형세장여실황존재교대차이，미충분고필근지층적상대습도조건，예보적운량소우실황；대백천무매적강온효응고산과저；강난평류증강850 hPa 기온시，당지면기온교저시，지면흡수대기열량，승온불명현，850 hPa 온도여지면기온변화적대응관계감약，과고고산료강난평류적승온작용；대 EC 화 GFS 등모식2 m 기온수치예보산품과도의뢰，미대형세화요소적수치모식예보결과진행검험。
Based on conventional ground observational data,forecast products from European Center (EC),Ameri-ca GFS and T639 numerical models,the maximum air temperature prediction errors were analyzed.The result shows that the temperature was obviously overestimated during the Spring Festival from January 30 to February 2, 2014 in Huaibei of Jiangsu province.It has been found that during the Spring Festival of 2014,the strong warm temperature advection at middle and lower troposphere is favorable to increase temperature greatly.However,abun-dant low-level cloud,dense mist and serious pollution weaken the incoming solar radiation.The surface with low air temperature absorbs the heat from the air,thus counteracting the warming effects of warm temperature advection and inhibiting temperature from rising over Huaibei of Jiangsu province,even decreasing the local temperature. Temperature inversion layer tends to be presented vertically.Meanwhile,the thermal inversion layer is favorable to maintenance of stable stratification at boundary layer and weak wind condition at the ground layer,which are not favorable to diffusion of pollution and water vapor.As a result,the fog and haze are enhanced.All these form a cooling feedback.Low cloud,fog and haze as well as temperature inversion layer have great impact on variation of daily air temperature.Main reasons for temperature prediction error are as follows:it has difference between ob-served and simulated circulation by a numerical weather prediction model;relative humidity near surface layer is underestimated;forecast total cloud cover is less than the observed.Cooling effect of fog and haze is not predicted. Strong warm temperature advection raises air temperature at 850 hPa.However,when surface air temperature is low,the surface absorbs heat from the air,thus leading to weak warming of surface air.The relationships of air temperature at 850 hPa and surface air temperature is weakened.Therefore,the warming of strong warm tempera-ture advection is overestimated.Forecast for 2 m air temperature is excessively depended on daily forecast products from EC and GFS models and so on.Circulation and parameters of the numerical forecast products has not been tested.