CAJ | 학술논문

本文在以滞后时间为权重的经典尺度化时间滞后法（SLAF）基础上，提出了一种改进方法，将滞后预报与控制预报之间差值场的均方根误差（RMSE）作为尺度化因子，构成集合预报成员，对比分析经典 SLAF 和改进 SLAF 方法对2007年4月23—24日广东地区一次飑线过程集合预报试验的模拟效果。结果表明：改进 SLAF 方法预报的各变量 RMSE 值有所降低，成员间离散度普遍增加；改进 SLAF 方法对强降水中心位置及降水强度的预报均优于经典 SLAF 方法。另外，多组加扰变量试验结果表明，对位温进行扰动的预报效果明显优于其他变量；不同的扰动变量对预报结果的影响不同，正确地选择扰动变量可明显提高预报效果。
본문재이체후시간위권중적경전척도화시간체후법（SLAF）기출상，제출료일충개진방법，장체후예보여공제예보지간차치장적균방근오차（RMSE）작위척도화인자，구성집합예보성원，대비분석경전 SLAF 화개진 SLAF 방법대2007년4월23—24일엄동지구일차박선과정집합예보시험적모의효과。결과표명：개진 SLAF 방법예보적각변량 RMSE 치유소강저，성원간리산도보편증가；개진 SLAF 방법대강강수중심위치급강수강도적예보균우우경전 SLAF 방법。령외，다조가우변량시험결과표명，대위온진행우동적예보효과명현우우기타변량；불동적우동변량대예보결과적영향불동，정학지선택우동변량가명현제고예보효과。
A modified method of Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF)was introduced to produce ensemble members considering root mean square error (RMSE)of difference between lagged forecasts and control runs as scaled factors.Both original and modified SLAF methods were utilized for the ensemble forecasts of a squall line process in Guangdong province on April 23 to 24,2007 and their simulation effects were compared.The results in-dicate that RMSEs of all variables determined using the modified SLAF decrease with increase of dispersion among members,while the forecasting center position and intensity of heavy rainfall for the modified SLAF are superior to those of the original one.Schemes with different variables for initial disturbances are tested.Forecasting is better for disturbance of potential temperature than for disturbance of other variables.The effect of different disturbance on forecasting is different,so selecting appropriate variables could enhance significantly the accuracy of forecas-ting.