CAJ | 학술논문

为了准确描述城市交通系统的运行现状，建立了城市交通系统各要素因果关系，明确了交通拥挤产生的原因以及拥挤收费的作用机制。考虑交通与经济、人口、环境等因素的相互关系，引入机动车限购政策的影响，构建了拥挤收费实施效果分析的系统动力学模型。以交通指数、路网平均速度、NO x 排放情况为研究对象，从交通和环境两方面综合考察政策实施效果。以北京市道路交通运行现状为背景，对2015~2020年北京市道路交通运行状况及交通环境进行预测；结果显示，仅以缓解拥堵为目标，拥挤收费价格为16元/车次时效果较好，更高的定价可能导致道路资源浪费；而综合考虑缓堵和减少排放时，收费11元/车次，即拥挤收费价格略低于出行者平均每次出行时间价值时，能够兼顾交通和环境的改善。
위료준학묘술성시교통계통적운행현상，건립료성시교통계통각요소인과관계，명학료교통옹제산생적원인이급옹제수비적작용궤제。고필교통여경제、인구、배경등인소적상호관계，인입궤동차한구정책적영향，구건료옹제수비실시효과분석적계통동역학모형。이교통지수、로망평균속도、NO x 배방정황위연구대상，종교통화배경량방면종합고찰정책실시효과。이북경시도로교통운행현상위배경，대2015~2020년북경시도로교통운행상황급교통배경진행예측；결과현시，부이완해옹도위목표，옹제수비개격위16원/차차시효과교호，경고적정개가능도치도로자원낭비；이종합고필완도화감소배방시，수비11원/차차，즉옹제수비개격략저우출행자평균매차출행시간개치시，능구겸고교통화배경적개선。
In order to accurately describe the operation states of urban transport systems,the relationships between various elements of urban transport systems are analyzed.The reasons leading to traffic congestion and the impact of con-gestion pricing are thoroughly described.Considering the interactions between economy,population and environment in conjunction with the impact of the policy of car purchasing restriction,a system dynamics model is developed and used to study the effects of congestion pricing.Effects of the congestion pricing are investigated in the following two aspects:traf-fic and environment impact with a focus on traffic performance index,average speed,and NO x emissions.The predicted results of traffic conditions and environment impact in Beijing between 201 5~2020 show that it would have the best effect when the congestion pricing is 1 6 Yuan per vehicle with a main target of alleviating traffic congestion;higher than 1 6 Yuan per vehicle will result in the waste of road resources.Otherwise,if taking both traffic and environment impact into consideration,when congestion pricing is set to 1 1 Yuan per vehicle,which is slightly lower than the average value of travel time,it cannot only alleviate traffic congestion,but also reduce emissions.