CAJ | 학술논문

数码成像技术之于柯达破产、智能手机之于 Nokia 没落、安卓之于微软“一家独大”地位动摇等一系列技术范式转换现象的频繁出现预示着“蚂蚁扳倒大象”已不仅成为现实，而且会越来越普遍。在此背景下，企业如能预见到新的技术范式，并识别、培育出突破性技术，则能成为新范式的掌舵者、行业的领导者。然而，已有的、基于线性思维的技术预测或预见方法尚难以解决包含高不确定性、复杂性的技术范式转换问题。对技术生态理论强调从“技术—环境—组织”去认识技术演化提供了一个解释新技术衍生机理的框架，因此，从技术生态理论出发，有可能寻找到技术范式转换预见的途径。
수마성상기술지우가체파산、지능수궤지우 Nokia 몰락、안탁지우미연“일가독대”지위동요등일계렬기술범식전환현상적빈번출현예시착“마의반도대상”이불부성위현실，이차회월래월보편。재차배경하，기업여능예견도신적기술범식，병식별、배육출돌파성기술，칙능성위신범식적장타자、행업적령도자。연이，이유적、기우선성사유적기술예측혹예견방법상난이해결포함고불학정성、복잡성적기술범식전환문제。대기술생태이론강조종“기술—배경—조직”거인식기술연화제공료일개해석신기술연생궤리적광가，인차，종기술생태이론출발，유가능심조도기술범식전환예견적도경。
A series of technological paradigm transformation phenomenon occurs frequently,such as Kodak’s bankruptcy with digital imaging technology,Nokia’s decline with smart phones and Microsoft “a dominant”position’s wobble with Android system.It shows that “ant toppled elephant”is not only a reality,but also an increasingly common phenomenon. In this context,if the dominant firms can foresee the new technological paradigm,and that identify and cultivate disruptive technology,it could be a helm of new technological paradigm and the leader of the industries.However,the present tech-nology forecasting/foresight methods based on linear thinking are still difficult to solve the problem of technological para-digm transformation with high uncertainty and complexity.We thought that the technology ecology theory stresses to under-stand the evolution of technology from a “technology -environment—organization”perspective,and it provides a mecha-nism to explain how the new technology derives.Therefore,it is possible to find a way to foresee technological paradigm transformation based on the technology ecology.