CAJ | 학술논문

本文在准确选取江苏省2001—2014年物流货运和客运统计数据的基础上，构建和运用灰色预测模型，对江苏省总物流需求量及各运输方式物流需求量进行预测。研究表明：在相对有效预测时间范围内，江苏省物流需求量整体将呈现较为显著的增长趋势，其中货运量增长速度超过客运量；公路运输依然是物流运输方式的第一选择，铁路的运输空间有所收缩，管道运输正成为新兴的运输方式。在此基础上，提出应及时有效地制定区域物流业发展规划，出台相应的指导政策及建议，以提升公路、铁路、水运、管道及航空五种交通运输方式的能力。
본문재준학선취강소성2001—2014년물류화운화객운통계수거적기출상，구건화운용회색예측모형，대강소성총물류수구량급각운수방식물류수구량진행예측。연구표명：재상대유효예측시간범위내，강소성물류수구량정체장정현교위현저적증장추세，기중화운량증장속도초과객운량；공로운수의연시물류운수방식적제일선택，철로적운수공간유소수축，관도운수정성위신흥적운수방식。재차기출상，제출응급시유효지제정구역물류업발전규화，출태상응적지도정책급건의，이제승공로、철로、수운、관도급항공오충교통운수방식적능력。
Based on accurate logistics freight and passenger traffic statistical data from 2001 to 2014 in Jiangsu province, this paper constructs and applies grey prediction model to predict the total logistics demand and logistics demand for different means of transportation in Jiangsu province. Research shows that in a relatively effective pre?diction time range, logistics demand in Jiangsu province as a whole will present more significant growth trend and the freight volume grows at a faster rate than the passenger traffic. Highway transportation is still the first choice of logistics mode of transportation, railway transportation space shrinks, and pipeline transportation is becoming a new way. Based on the findings, regional logistics industry development planning should be established timely and effec?tively, the corresponding guiding policy and advice should be introduced to promote the capacities of five transpor?tation means, namely, highway, railway, waterway, pipeline and air.