CAJ | 학술논문

针对一体化保障设备数量的配置规划过程中保障设备使用工作量的预测问题，根据一体化保障系统与灰色系统的相似性，结合粒子群优化算法的特点，提出了基于粒子群优化的灰色系统预测保障设备使用工作量的算法；该算法的基础是一体化保障设备年度使用工作量的时间序列，通过对时间序列的一系列数学处理得出预测结果；通过该算法提高了一体化保障设备使用工作量的预测精度，增强了一体化保障设备数量规划的科学性，为整个一体化保障系统的建设积累了经验。
침대일체화보장설비수량적배치규화과정중보장설비사용공작량적예측문제，근거일체화보장계통여회색계통적상사성，결합입자군우화산법적특점，제출료기우입자군우화적회색계통예측보장설비사용공작량적산법；해산법적기출시일체화보장설비년도사용공작량적시간서렬，통과대시간서렬적일계렬수학처리득출예측결과；통과해산법제고료일체화보장설비사용공작량적예측정도，증강료일체화보장설비수량규화적과학성，위정개일체화보장계통적건설적루료경험。
In the light of the similarity between the supporting system and the grey system,this article pro-posed an algorithm based on PSO’s grey system in forecasting the workload of the support equipment in or-der to solve the problem of projecting the workload of the integrated support equipment during the process of configuring and planning the numbers of the equipment. The basis of the algorithm was the time series of the workload and the projection was made possible by the mathematically processed time series. This algo-rithm improves the prediction accuracy of the workload of the integrated support system and promises a more scientific number planning of support equipment,which accumulates experience for the construction of integrated support system.