金融理论与实践
金融理論與實踐
금융이론여실천
Financial Theory and Practice
2015年
11期
107-109
,共3页
中央银行%国库管理%随机现金流模型%国库期初最佳库存%国库拨付能力%保费成本
中央銀行%國庫管理%隨機現金流模型%國庫期初最佳庫存%國庫撥付能力%保費成本
중앙은행%국고관리%수궤현금류모형%국고기초최가고존%국고발부능력%보비성본
central bank%treasury management%stochastic cash flow model%optimal inventory of the beginning treasury%treasury allocated capability%premium costs
近年来，我国国库现金管理工作稳步推进，但从工作实践看，中央国库现金管理的操作规模并不大①，国库库存始终较高，地方国库现金管理只有北京②等6省市纳入试点。虽然全面放开地方试点、大幅扩大操作规模还面临政策上的争议或矛盾，但技术上的困难也是不容忽视的问题，比如在确保未来支付需要的前提下如何根据现金流量来准确确定国库期初最佳库存。在分析国库支付需要及现金流基本特征的基础上，借鉴企业随机现金流模型来预测国库期初最佳库存。
近年來，我國國庫現金管理工作穩步推進，但從工作實踐看，中央國庫現金管理的操作規模併不大①，國庫庫存始終較高，地方國庫現金管理隻有北京②等6省市納入試點。雖然全麵放開地方試點、大幅擴大操作規模還麵臨政策上的爭議或矛盾，但技術上的睏難也是不容忽視的問題，比如在確保未來支付需要的前提下如何根據現金流量來準確確定國庫期初最佳庫存。在分析國庫支付需要及現金流基本特徵的基礎上，藉鑒企業隨機現金流模型來預測國庫期初最佳庫存。
근년래，아국국고현금관리공작은보추진，단종공작실천간，중앙국고현금관리적조작규모병불대①，국고고존시종교고，지방국고현금관리지유북경②등6성시납입시점。수연전면방개지방시점、대폭확대조작규모환면림정책상적쟁의혹모순，단기술상적곤난야시불용홀시적문제，비여재학보미래지부수요적전제하여하근거현금류량래준학학정국고기초최가고존。재분석국고지부수요급현금류기본특정적기출상，차감기업수궤현금류모형래예측국고기초최가고존。
In recent years, our treasury cash management work steadily. However, from the work practice the scale of central treasury cash management operations was limited and treasury stock was always higher, only 6 provinces and cities including Beijing were experimental unit for local treasury cash management. Full liberalization of local pilot and significantly expand the scale of operation both faced with the controversial or contradictory policy. Furthermore, technical difficulties could not be ignored, such as how to accurately determine the optimum treasury stock in accordance with cash flow beginning under the premise of ensuring that future payment needs. This paper first analyzed the treasury payment needs and cash flow basic features, and then on that base the author predicted the optimal inventory of the beginning treasury with enterprise stochastic cash flow model.
