CAJ | 학술논문

干线公路出入口安全影响因素众多,除去人为、天气等偶发性因素,道路条件对交通安全的影响非常重要. 基于国道G205江苏段出入口安全评价项目的长期调研,对出入口安全影响因素进行潜聚类分析筛选出关键指标,建立干线公路出入口安全宏观-中观-微观评价指标体系. 在此基础上利用G205江苏段2008年到2011年交通事故统计数据构建结构平衡方程(SEM)模型. SEM模型内因和外因之间通过安全性指数(SPI)进行关联,统计验证显示安全评价模型的优度拟合值(CFI)达到0.967. 干线公路出入口安全SEM建模能较好揭示各层次变量对出入口安全的影响,对于把握出入口管理重点,提出合理的改善策略具有显著社会经济价值,也为出入口安全研究提供了一个新视角.
간선공로출입구안전영향인소음다,제거인위、천기등우발성인소,도로조건대교통안전적영향비상중요. 기우국도G205강소단출입구안전평개항목적장기조연,대출입구안전영향인소진행잠취류분석사선출관건지표,건립간선공로출입구안전굉관-중관-미관평개지표체계. 재차기출상이용G205강소단2008년도2011년교통사고통계수거구건결구평형방정(SEM)모형. SEM모형내인화외인지간통과안전성지수(SPI)진행관련,통계험증현시안전평개모형적우도의합치(CFI)체도0.967. 간선공로출입구안전SEM건모능교호게시각층차변량대출입구안전적영향,대우파악출입구관리중점,제출합리적개선책략구유현저사회경제개치,야위출입구안전연구제공료일개신시각.
There are numerous factors affecting highway access safety, among which the factor of access safety propensity is quite important in addition to the accidental reasons of human and weather. Through the long-term researches into the safety evaluation projects of national highway G205 at Jiangsu section, by way of latent clus-tering analysis to screen out key indicators, this paper firstly tries to establish the macro-medium-micro evalua-tion index system for highway access safety. Then it sets up the structural equation model (SEM) of highway ac-cess safety based on the traffic accident data of national highway G205 at Jiangsu section from 2008 to 2011. In-ternal and external factors of SEM model are connected through the security index (SPI). Statistical validation finds out that fitting value (CFI) of the safety evaluation model reaches 0.967. The proposed SEM modeling shows effects of variables at all levels on arterial access safety and promotes the focus of entrance management, which provides significant social and economic value for the reasonable improvement strategies and new perspectives on access safety.