CAJ | 학술논문

作为区域灾害风险管理的重要组成部分,灾情评估可为区域灾害预防与发生以及更好地进行区域经济可持续发展规划提供科学依据.自然灾害灾情评估的难点是估算灾情发生的不确定性、损失的概率分布以及处理评价过程中指标的随机性和评价等级的模糊性.为此,提出了基于信息熵的改进灾情评估模型,用最大熵原理处理灾害发生的不确定性和损失的概率分布,用指数普适公式处理评价指标的变化差异性,并利用加速遗传算法优化相关参数,进而建立了基于信息熵的AGA优化改进灾情评估普适模型.应用结果表明:该模型有效地估算了灾害发生的概率,解决了评估灾害发生的不确定性问题,提高了评价的可靠性,且方法智能化程度高,可在多种灾情评价中进行推广应用.
작위구역재해풍험관리적중요조성부분,재정평고가위구역재해예방여발생이급경호지진행구역경제가지속발전규화제공과학의거.자연재해재정평고적난점시고산재정발생적불학정성、손실적개솔분포이급처리평개과정중지표적수궤성화평개등급적모호성.위차,제출료기우신식적적개진재정평고모형,용최대적원리처리재해발생적불학정성화손실적개솔분포,용지수보괄공식처리평개지표적변화차이성,병이용가속유전산법우화상관삼수,진이건립료기우신식적적AGA우화개진재정평고보괄모형.응용결과표명:해모형유효지고산료재해발생적개솔,해결료평고재해발생적불학정성문제,제고료평개적가고성,차방법지능화정도고,가재다충재정평개중진행추엄응용.
As an important part of regional disaster risk management, damage assessment can provide a scientific basis for the regional disaster prevention and occurrence and better planning for sustainable development of regional economy. The difficulties of natural dis-aster assessment are the estimates of the disaster uncertainty and the probability distributions of the loss, and the randomness of indica-tors and the ambiguity of evaluation level in the evaluation process. Therefore, an improved disaster assessment model based on infor-mation entropy is proposed. The maximum entropy principle is applied to the disaster uncertainty and the probability distributions of the loss, the index universal formula is applied to the variation differences of evaluation indexes, and the accelerating genetic algorithm is used to optimize the relevant parameters. Furthermore, an AGA optimized improved universal model of flood disaster assessment based on the information entropy is built. The application results show this model effectively estimates the probability of disaster, solves the uncertainty of disaster occurrence, and improves the reliability of evaluation. Thus, the method is smart and effective, and can be per-formed in a variety of disaster evaluation.