华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）
華北水利水電大學學報（自然科學版）
화북수이수전대학학보（자연과학판）
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
2015年
5期
1-4,9
,共5页
DGM(1,1)模型%降水量%马尔可夫链%残差灾变序列
DGM(1,1)模型%降水量%馬爾可伕鏈%殘差災變序列
DGM(1,1)모형%강수량%마이가부련%잔차재변서렬
DGM (1%1) model%precipitation%Markov chain%residual abnormal sequence
针对旱涝灾害影响范围广、发生频率高和难以准确预测的情况,利用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵与DGM(1,1)预测模型的互补优势,构建了灰色残差马尔可夫预测模型.选取郑州市某60 a的年降水量作为历史数据,运用均值-标准差旱涝等级划分法得到干旱和雨涝的降水量临界值,从而取定上、下灾变点,分别建立干旱和雨涝日期灾变序列,并对序列进行建模求解.结果表明,灰色残差马尔可夫预测模型计算简便、精度较高.预测结果可以为郑州地区的旱涝预测及防灾减灾工作提供借鉴.
針對旱澇災害影響範圍廣、髮生頻率高和難以準確預測的情況,利用馬爾可伕狀態轉移矩陣與DGM(1,1)預測模型的互補優勢,構建瞭灰色殘差馬爾可伕預測模型.選取鄭州市某60 a的年降水量作為歷史數據,運用均值-標準差旱澇等級劃分法得到榦旱和雨澇的降水量臨界值,從而取定上、下災變點,分彆建立榦旱和雨澇日期災變序列,併對序列進行建模求解.結果錶明,灰色殘差馬爾可伕預測模型計算簡便、精度較高.預測結果可以為鄭州地區的旱澇預測及防災減災工作提供藉鑒.
침대한로재해영향범위엄、발생빈솔고화난이준학예측적정황,이용마이가부상태전이구진여DGM(1,1)예측모형적호보우세,구건료회색잔차마이가부예측모형.선취정주시모60 a적년강수량작위역사수거,운용균치-표준차한로등급화분법득도간한화우로적강수량림계치,종이취정상、하재변점,분별건립간한화우로일기재변서렬,병대서렬진행건모구해.결과표명,회색잔차마이가부예측모형계산간편、정도교고.예측결과가이위정주지구적한로예측급방재감재공작제공차감.
The drought and flood disaster has features with wide influence, high frequency and hard to forecast. Based on the basic principle of grey model and the complementary advantage of Markov state transition matrix, the grey Markov prediction residuals optimi-zation model was established. We chose the annual precipitation during 60 years in Zhengzhou as historical data and fixed the abnormal sequence, then established the prediction model of drought and flood. Using mean-standard deviation drought and flood classification method, the precipitation thresholds of drought and waterlogging were obtained. Thereby taking fixed upper and lower catastrophe point, the date disaster sequences of drought and waterlogging were built. At last, the sequence was modeled and solved. The result shows that the optimized prediction models of grey Markov are simpler and more accurate than the basic grey model and can be used as a reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation of Zhengzhou City.
