工业安全与环保
工業安全與環保
공업안전여배보
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
2015年
11期
51-53
,共3页
多米诺效应%风险评估%概率模型
多米諾效應%風險評估%概率模型
다미낙효응%풍험평고%개솔모형
domino effect%risk assessment%probability model
石化工业储罐区储存大量易燃物质，储罐发生火灾可能对邻近储罐造成影响，引发严重的多米诺事故。火灾发生后的应急响应会对事故发展造成影响，并影响多米诺效应的发生概率。结合Probit分析方法和我国火灾应急响应统计数据，建立了储罐区火灾引发多米诺效应的概率分析模型，并以汽油储罐火灾为例，分析了多米诺效应的概率。
石化工業儲罐區儲存大量易燃物質，儲罐髮生火災可能對鄰近儲罐造成影響，引髮嚴重的多米諾事故。火災髮生後的應急響應會對事故髮展造成影響，併影響多米諾效應的髮生概率。結閤Probit分析方法和我國火災應急響應統計數據，建立瞭儲罐區火災引髮多米諾效應的概率分析模型，併以汽油儲罐火災為例，分析瞭多米諾效應的概率。
석화공업저관구저존대량역연물질，저관발생화재가능대린근저관조성영향，인발엄중적다미낙사고。화재발생후적응급향응회대사고발전조성영향，병영향다미낙효응적발생개솔。결합Probit분석방법화아국화재응급향응통계수거，건립료저관구화재인발다미낙효응적개솔분석모형，병이기유저관화재위례，분석료다미낙효응적개솔。
In petrochemical industry ,large quantities of different flammable substances are stored in tank areas .Due to mutual impacts among the tanks ,severe domino accidents may occur after a tank catches fire .The emergency response to a tank fire may influence the development of the accident and impact on the occurring likelihood of domino effects .Based on the Probit method for assessing domino effect triggered by fire and the statistical emergency response data of our country ,the probability assessment model for domino effect triggered by tank fire is proposed .Tank fire among gasoline storage tanks is taken as an example to illustrate this approach .
