CAJ | 학술논문

为降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生的概率，提出了一种将贝叶斯网络与 boW-tie 法相结合的风险评价方法。通过建立火灾爆炸事故的故障树并转化成贝叶斯网络，然后计算各基本事件的重要度，进而找出系统中导致事故发生的薄弱环节。采用 boW-tie 对薄弱环节进行分析，提出相应的预防措施与控制措施，并计算了薄弱环节采取控制措施后事故发生概率降低的幅度。该方法可精确找出导致事故发生的最主要原因及有效预防控制措施，达到有效降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生概率的目的。
위강저생물질기화화재폭작사고발생적개솔，제출료일충장패협사망락여 boW-tie 법상결합적풍험평개방법。통과건립화재폭작사고적고장수병전화성패협사망락，연후계산각기본사건적중요도，진이조출계통중도치사고발생적박약배절。채용 boW-tie 대박약배절진행분석，제출상응적예방조시여공제조시，병계산료박약배절채취공제조시후사고발생개솔강저적폭도。해방법가정학조출도치사고발생적최주요원인급유효예방공제조시，체도유효강저생물질기화화재폭작사고발생개솔적목적。
In order to reduce the occurrence of fire and explosion accidents ,a risk assessment approach integrating Bayesian netWork and boW-tie analysis Was proposed.Firstly,the fault tree is established and transformed into Bayesian netWork.Then the Weak points Which might lead to accidents can be pinpointed by calculating the importance of each basic event.The boW-tie analysis is given on the Weak points to Work out the precautions and control measures,and the reduction of accident frequency is calculated after taking control measures for the Weak points. The reasons for such accidents can be found accurately by this approach,Which helps to take appropriate precautions and control measures so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of biomass gasified fire and explosion accidents.