CAJ | 학술논문

膜内5 cm地温稳定通过10~12℃为棉花适宜播种的温度指标,找出地膜内5 cm地温与气温的定量关系并进行地温预报,同时确定对应的日平均气温的稳定界限指标值,就成为开展棉花适宜播种期预报的关键所在.以石河子绿洲覆膜栽培棉区为研究对象,分析了2008—2014年棉区春播期膜内5 cm地温、气温的变化趋势以及气温与覆膜内、外地温的关系,并建立了膜内5 cm地温预报模型.结果表明:近年来石河子棉区春播期内气温和膜内外5 cm地温变化趋势一致,均有所上升,且膜内5 cm地温显著高于膜外地温和日平均气温.棉田覆膜内外5 cm地温与气温之间显著相关(P≤0.01),石河子棉田覆膜内5 cm地温稳定通过10~12℃时,对应的日平均气温界限范围为6.3~8.2℃;利用逐日气温建立膜内5 cm地温预报模型,回代检验绝对误差平均为1.01℃,2014和2015年预报检验绝对误差分别为0.5、0.7℃.预报模型可为更好地开展棉花播种期气象服务提供参考依据.
막내5 cm지온은정통과10~12℃위면화괄의파충적온도지표,조출지막내5 cm지온여기온적정량관계병진행지온예보,동시학정대응적일평균기온적은정계한지표치,취성위개전면화괄의파충기예보적관건소재.이석하자록주복막재배면구위연구대상,분석료2008—2014년면구춘파기막내5 cm지온、기온적변화추세이급기온여복막내、외지온적관계,병건립료막내5 cm지온예보모형.결과표명:근년래석하자면구춘파기내기온화막내외5 cm지온변화추세일치,균유소상승,차막내5 cm지온현저고우막외지온화일평균기온.면전복막내외5 cm지온여기온지간현저상관(P≤0.01),석하자면전복막내5 cm지온은정통과10~12℃시,대응적일평균기온계한범위위6.3~8.2℃;이용축일기온건립막내5 cm지온예보모형,회대검험절대오차평균위1.01℃,2014화2015년예보검험절대오차분별위0.5、0.7℃.예보모형가위경호지개전면화파충기기상복무제공삼고의거.
The field will be ready for cotton seeding if the ground temperature under 5 cm soil depth with plastic mulching stands at 10~12 ℃, generally. Therefore research on the relationship between ground and air temperature, and focuses on the corresponding extent index of air temperature is important to carry out meteorological predicting of sowing date. Based on the data of air temperature and ground temperature from 2008 to 2014 in cotton area of Shihezi oasis under cultivation with plastic mulching,variation trend of ground temperature and its relationship with air temperature were analyzed, and a forecast model of ground temperature at 5 cm soil depth was built. The results showed as follows. The annual change of mean air and ground temperatures at 5 cm soil depth with or without plastic mulching presented significant increasing trends in recent years, and the rise was asymmetric. The mean ground temperature at 5 cm soil depth with plastic mulching was higher than mean air temperature. The relationship was significant between 5 cm ground temperature with plastic mulching and air temperature, 5 cm ground temperature without plastic mulching, respectively. When the mean ground temperature at 5 cm soil depth with plastic mulching staying at 10~12 ℃, the corresponding extent index of air temperature was 6.3~8.2 ℃. The prediction model of the 5 cm ground temperature with plastic mulching was established using the daily mean temperature as factor. The average absolute error was 1.01℃ tested with history back to the generation, and it was 0.5 and 0.7℃for a prediction of 2014 and 2015. The forecast model can be a reference for the sowing date meteorological service.