CAJ | 학술논문

目的：了解广西肺结核患者登记人数的时间变化规律，预测2015～2016年登记数量，为广西肺结核病的预防与控制提供依据。方法对2009～2014年广西登记的肺结核各类患者人数采用时间序列分析法建立模型，并根据模型预测2015～2016年广西肺结核患者登记数量变化趋势。结果2009～2014年广西登记的肺结核患者总人数具有下降趋势，呈现夏秋季高发的季节周期性；2015年和2016年肺结核患者总人数预测值（置信区间）分别为34108（32082，36134）、32618（30537，34698）人；涂阴／非涂阳患者登记人数历年及2015～2016年两年保持总体平稳上升；5年及2015～2016年登记的涂阳肺结核患者登记人数预测值与观察值拟合尚佳，呈下降趋势。结论未来肺结核患者登记总数和涂阳登记数均将持续下滑，但涂阴／非涂阳患者登记数总体平稳向上，疫情维持居高不下的基本面依然存在，但减缓了总体登记数的降速。
목적：료해엄서폐결핵환자등기인수적시간변화규률，예측2015～2016년등기수량，위엄서폐결핵병적예방여공제제공의거。방법대2009～2014년엄서등기적폐결핵각류환자인수채용시간서렬분석법건립모형，병근거모형예측2015～2016년엄서폐결핵환자등기수량변화추세。결과2009～2014년엄서등기적폐결핵환자총인수구유하강추세，정현하추계고발적계절주기성；2015년화2016년폐결핵환자총인수예측치（치신구간）분별위34108（32082，36134）、32618（30537，34698）인；도음／비도양환자등기인수력년급2015～2016년량년보지총체평은상승；5년급2015～2016년등기적도양폐결핵환자등기인수예측치여관찰치의합상가，정하강추세。결론미래폐결핵환자등기총수화도양등기수균장지속하활，단도음／비도양환자등기수총체평은향상，역정유지거고불하적기본면의연존재，단감완료총체등기수적강속。
Objective To investigate the change regulation of registeration number of patients with tuberculosis in Guangxi with time,and to predict the registeration number in 2015 and 2016,aiming at providing the basis for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in Guangxi .Methods The model was established using time series analysis for patients with various types of tuberculosis registered in Guangxi from 2009 to 2014 .And the prediction about the change regulation of registeration number of patients with tuberculosis in Guangxi from 2015 to 2016 was conducted based on this model.Results From 2009 to 2014,the total number of patients with tuberculosis registered in Guangxi had a decline,and showed a seasonal periodicity with high incidence of summer and autumn.The predicted values(confidence intervals) of the total number of patients with tuberculosis in 2015 and 2016 were 34 108(32 082,36 134) and 32618(30 537,34 698),respectively. The registered number of patients with smear-negative or non-smear-positive tuberculosis kept upward stably in the past years and in 2015 and 2016.For patients with smear-positive tuberculosis ,the predicted values of the registered number fitted the observed values well ,and tended to be decreased.Conclusion In the next few years,the total registered number of patients with tuberculosis and the registered number of patients with smear-positive tuberculosis will continue to reduce , but the overall registered number of patients with smear-negative or non-smear-positive tuberculosis keeps upward stably .The basic situation that tuberculosis epidemic is severe still exists ,however,it slows down the declining speed of the overall registered number .