中国卒中杂志
中國卒中雜誌
중국졸중잡지
Chinese Journal of Stroke
2015年
11期
930-934
,共5页
张欣%杨晓明%褚晓婷%王妍敏
張訢%楊曉明%褚曉婷%王妍敏
장흔%양효명%저효정%왕연민
脑血管病%死亡%趋势分析
腦血管病%死亡%趨勢分析
뇌혈관병%사망%추세분석
Cerebrovascular diseases%Death%Trend analysis
目的了解1975至2014年上海市静安区户籍人口脑血管病死亡的流行趋势，为制定预防控制策略和措施提供科学依据。<br> 方法利用静安区1975至2014年居民死因监测资料，计算脑血管病粗死亡率，标化死亡率，40年间死亡率变化趋势及平均死亡年龄的变化趋势。<br> 结果1975至2014年上海市静安区户籍人口脑血管病死亡的平均粗死亡率及标化死亡率分别为<br> 165.60/10万和120.54/10万，男女性的死亡率差异无统计学意义；40年间脑血管病粗死亡率呈上升趋势（χ2趋势=10.58，P<0.001），标化死亡率呈逐年下降的线性趋势，用SAS系统中的AUTOREG（自回归）过程进行时间序列线性趋势拟合，回归模型有意义（t=32.13，P<0.001）；脑血管病平均死亡年龄呈逐年上升的线性趋势，采用时间序列线性趋势拟合，回归模型有意义（t=260.46，P<0.001）。<br> 结论本文的研究结果提示上海市脑血管病的患病率将持续升高，而脑血管病的存活年龄逐年上升。
目的瞭解1975至2014年上海市靜安區戶籍人口腦血管病死亡的流行趨勢，為製定預防控製策略和措施提供科學依據。<br> 方法利用靜安區1975至2014年居民死因鑑測資料，計算腦血管病粗死亡率，標化死亡率，40年間死亡率變化趨勢及平均死亡年齡的變化趨勢。<br> 結果1975至2014年上海市靜安區戶籍人口腦血管病死亡的平均粗死亡率及標化死亡率分彆為<br> 165.60/10萬和120.54/10萬，男女性的死亡率差異無統計學意義；40年間腦血管病粗死亡率呈上升趨勢（χ2趨勢=10.58，P<0.001），標化死亡率呈逐年下降的線性趨勢，用SAS繫統中的AUTOREG（自迴歸）過程進行時間序列線性趨勢擬閤，迴歸模型有意義（t=32.13，P<0.001）；腦血管病平均死亡年齡呈逐年上升的線性趨勢，採用時間序列線性趨勢擬閤，迴歸模型有意義（t=260.46，P<0.001）。<br> 結論本文的研究結果提示上海市腦血管病的患病率將持續升高，而腦血管病的存活年齡逐年上升。
목적료해1975지2014년상해시정안구호적인구뇌혈관병사망적류행추세，위제정예방공제책략화조시제공과학의거。<br> 방법이용정안구1975지2014년거민사인감측자료，계산뇌혈관병조사망솔，표화사망솔，40년간사망솔변화추세급평균사망년령적변화추세。<br> 결과1975지2014년상해시정안구호적인구뇌혈관병사망적평균조사망솔급표화사망솔분별위<br> 165.60/10만화120.54/10만，남녀성적사망솔차이무통계학의의；40년간뇌혈관병조사망솔정상승추세（χ2추세=10.58，P<0.001），표화사망솔정축년하강적선성추세，용SAS계통중적AUTOREG（자회귀）과정진행시간서렬선성추세의합，회귀모형유의의（t=32.13，P<0.001）；뇌혈관병평균사망년령정축년상승적선성추세，채용시간서렬선성추세의합，회귀모형유의의（t=260.46，P<0.001）。<br> 결론본문적연구결과제시상해시뇌혈관병적환병솔장지속승고，이뇌혈관병적존활년령축년상승。
Objective To analyze the trend of the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Jing’an District of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014, and to provide scientiifc evidence for developing effective prevention and control strategies. <br> Methods Based on the death surveillance data of Jing'an District residents of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014, to calculate the crude mortality, standardized mortality rate, and to explore the trend of mortality and average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases. <br> Results The crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases was 16 560/105, the standardized mortality rate was 12 054/105, and there is no signiifcant difference between genders. There was an increasing tendency of crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 1975 to 2014 (χ2=10.58,P<0.01), and the standardized mortality rate decreased linearly. Take time-series linear trend fitting with AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t=32.13,P<0.01). The trend of average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases increased linearly.Take time-series linear trend iftting with AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t=260.46, P<0.01). <br> Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the incidence of cerebral vascular disease will continue to increase. But the high disability rate and high recurrence rate of cerebral vascular disease, and the survival age rising year after year indicates that they will bring a heavy burden of disease. Therefore, the government should further strengthen the ifrst grade prevention of cerebral vascular disease, and the average expectancy life will be improved, so the average health life.
