CAJ | 학술논문

以近10届(2005-2015)CBA各球队为案例，采集横截面、时间序列、面板3个层面的数据，基于经济学HHI方法衡量和揭示CBA各球队竞争实力的不确定性，探寻CBA各球队竞争实力不确定性与现场观众人数、主客场胜率和净胜分等之间的关系，结果表明：近10届CBA联赛HHI值呈下降趋势，说明CBA各球队竞争力正向着均衡方向发展，但赛季内部球队之间竞争力差距依然明显；主场和客场胜率之间差距存在高度显著性( P<0.01)；CBA观众上座率与HHI之间呈高度负相关(P<0.05)，即比赛结果的不确定性越强，上座率就越高；近10届CBA联赛主、客场净胜分差值在逐渐缩小，冠亚军球队实力正趋于平衡，但与其它队伍之间的差距存在显著性。
이근10계(2005-2015)CBA각구대위안례，채집횡절면、시간서렬、면판3개층면적수거，기우경제학HHI방법형량화게시CBA각구대경쟁실력적불학정성，탐심CBA각구대경쟁실력불학정성여현장관음인수、주객장성솔화정성분등지간적관계，결과표명：근10계CBA련새HHI치정하강추세，설명CBA각구대경쟁력정향착균형방향발전，단새계내부구대지간경쟁력차거의연명현；주장화객장성솔지간차거존재고도현저성( P<0.01)；CBA관음상좌솔여HHI지간정고도부상관(P<0.05)，즉비새결과적불학정성월강，상좌솔취월고；근10계CBA련새주、객장정성분차치재축점축소，관아군구대실력정추우평형，단여기타대오지간적차거존재현저성。
Taking CBA teams in the last 10 seasons (2005~2015) as a case, and applying HHI method in Econom-ics to the analysis of the data in cross section, time sequence and panel, the author measures and reveals the uncertainty of CBA teams' competition power and explores the uncertainty' s relation to audience, winning per-centage in home and away competitions and net scores. Results demonstrate that the CBA HHI value gradually decreases in the past 10 seasons, which indicates that the CBA teams' competition power is developing towards a balanced state, while the competitive gap between the teams is still significant;The gap between home and a-way winning percentage is quite significant (P< 0. 01), and the CBA spectator attendance rate is negatively correlated with HHI value (P<0. 05), that is, the more uncertain the result is, the higher is the rate of at-tendance, the gap in net score between home and away teams in the past 10 years is gradually narrowing, and the champion and the runner up are becoming close in their strength, but both champion and runner up is sig-nificantly stronger than the rest teams in strength.