CAJ | 학술논문

2014/15榨季中国累计生产食糖1055.6万t,较上榨季减产20.74%；销售食糖879.3万t,较上榨季减少14.16%。2015年中国食糖进入减产周期,糖料种植面积逐年下降；国家对食糖进口调控和管理措施进行了部署,同时启动了300万t地方食糖工业临时储备。展望后市,国内糖市将进入长期去库存阶段,糖价或稳中上升；2014/15榨季国际糖市供给仍过剩,下榨季或由剩转缺,但糖价受各方因素影响仍难有快速改观。后期需继续关注巴西和印度等主产国天气变化、巴西糖醇比、雷亚尔兑美元走势、印度进出口政策变化以及宏观经济动态等因素。
2014/15자계중국루계생산식당1055.6만t,교상자계감산20.74%；소수식당879.3만t,교상자계감소14.16%。2015년중국식당진입감산주기,당료충식면적축년하강；국가대식당진구조공화관리조시진행료부서,동시계동료300만t지방식당공업림시저비。전망후시,국내당시장진입장기거고존계단,당개혹은중상승；2014/15자계국제당시공급잉과잉,하자계혹유잉전결,단당개수각방인소영향잉난유쾌속개관。후기수계속관주파서화인도등주산국천기변화、파서당순비、뢰아이태미원주세、인도진출구정책변화이급굉관경제동태등인소。
China suffered a decline in both sugar production and sales in 2014/15 crushing season. The total sugar output dropped by 20.74 percent to 10.556 million tons and the sales volume dropped by 14.16 percent to 8.793 million tons. Recently, the planting area of sugar crops has decreased year by year, and it was part of the production cycle of decline in 2015. The state regulation and management measures for sugar imports were deployed, and a temporary policy of the 3 million tons of local sugar industry reserves was implemented. In the future, sugar price will probably increase in a stable trend, due to the long-time inventory decline. There is still a supply surplus in international sugar market in 2014/15 crushing season, while in the next period, the supply and demand situation may reverse. However, because of various factors, the sugar price trend may hardly change in the short term. Sugar industries should focus on such factors, the climate of main producing countries such as Brazil and India, the ratio of sugar to alcohol in Brazil, the real price of real against the dollar, the import and export policies changes of India and the macro economy.