CAJ | 학술논문

基于核密度函数改进了含有耦合特性的电动汽车充电负荷计算模型。模型中，采用核密度函数代替确定性的概率分布函数拟合电动汽车的行驶规律，采用多维概率分布函数生成含有耦合特性的行驶规律随机数，采用充电概率表示不确定的充电行为。通过与示范运行电动汽车充电负荷数据对比，验证了该方法的优越性。基于改进模型，预测了未来规模化居民私家电动汽车的充电负荷情况，研究发现：不确定充电行为对电动汽车充电负荷的影响很大，随着充电概率的减小充电负荷峰值的降低很大，峰值变化范围及充电持续时间均增大，并给电网负荷造成不确定的影响。
기우핵밀도함수개진료함유우합특성적전동기차충전부하계산모형。모형중，채용핵밀도함수대체학정성적개솔분포함수의합전동기차적행사규률，채용다유개솔분포함수생성함유우합특성적행사규률수궤수，채용충전개솔표시불학정적충전행위。통과여시범운행전동기차충전부하수거대비，험증료해방법적우월성。기우개진모형，예측료미래규모화거민사가전동기차적충전부하정황，연구발현：불학정충전행위대전동기차충전부하적영향흔대，수착충전개솔적감소충전부하봉치적강저흔대，봉치변화범위급충전지속시간균증대，병급전망부하조성불학정적영향。
Based on the kernel density function,a charging load calculation model with coupling characteristics is improved.In this model,the kernel density function instead of deterministic probability distribution function is selected to fit electric vehicles”(EVs”) driving characteristics,the multi-dimensional probability distribution function to generate EVs”driving random numbers with coupling features,and the charging probability to describe users”uncertainty charging behavior.By comparing the calculated charging load with the actual charging load of a normal EVs”charging station,the superiority of this method is verified.And then based on the improved model,the charging load of future large-scale residents”private EVs is predicted.It is shown by research that the uncertain charging behavior exerts a great impact on EVs”charging load.With decreased charging probability,the peak of charging load is greatly reduced,the peak value variation range and charging duration both increased and uncertain effects are brought to the grid load.