中国电机工程学报
中國電機工程學報
중국전궤공정학보
Proceedings of the CSEE
2015年
22期
5723-5730
,共8页
张淑清%师荣艳%董玉兰%李盼%任爽%姜万录
張淑清%師榮豔%董玉蘭%李盼%任爽%薑萬錄
장숙청%사영염%동옥란%리반%임상%강만록
负荷预测%小波阈值去噪%双变量阈值函数%混沌预测模型改进
負荷預測%小波閾值去譟%雙變量閾值函數%混沌預測模型改進
부하예측%소파역치거조%쌍변량역치함수%혼돈예측모형개진
load forecasting%wavelet threshold denoising%bivariate threshold function%improvement to chaotic forecasting model
混沌预测是电力负荷预测研究的新焦点。该文提出双变量阈值函数和改进混沌预测模型相结合的新方法。该方法克服了传统最大Lyapunov指数预测模型对噪声干扰比较敏感、计算量大、预测时间长以及预测精度不高等缺陷。通过对典型混沌系统和实际电力负荷系统进行短期预测分析，证明该方法能较好排除无关因素对预测的干扰，缩短预测时间，有效提高预测精度。
混沌預測是電力負荷預測研究的新焦點。該文提齣雙變量閾值函數和改進混沌預測模型相結閤的新方法。該方法剋服瞭傳統最大Lyapunov指數預測模型對譟聲榦擾比較敏感、計算量大、預測時間長以及預測精度不高等缺陷。通過對典型混沌繫統和實際電力負荷繫統進行短期預測分析，證明該方法能較好排除無關因素對預測的榦擾，縮短預測時間，有效提高預測精度。
혼돈예측시전력부하예측연구적신초점。해문제출쌍변량역치함수화개진혼돈예측모형상결합적신방법。해방법극복료전통최대Lyapunov지수예측모형대조성간우비교민감、계산량대、예측시간장이급예측정도불고등결함。통과대전형혼돈계통화실제전력부하계통진행단기예측분석，증명해방법능교호배제무관인소대예측적간우，축단예측시간，유효제고예측정도。
Chaos prediction is the new focus of researches on power load forecasting. A new method combining bivariate threshold wavelet function and improved chaotic forecasting model was proposed. It could effectively solve the problems of traditional forecasting model based on maximum Lyapunov exponent, such as more sensitive to noise interference, large computation, long prediction time and low prediction accuracy. The numerical verification and prediction analysis results to typical chaotic systems and actual power system proved that this new method could effectively eliminate interference factors unrelated to predict, decrease forecasting time and enhance the forecasting accuracy significantly.
