CAJ | 학술논문

以空管安全为研究对象，旨在建立一套关于空管安全的概率评估方法。首先从数学的角度，将空管不安全事件进行了概率化表示；然后，根据 Bayes 定理，将空管安全的概率评估分为3个阶段：先验分布的确定、样本信息的获取和样本信息对先验分布的修正。具体研究方法为采用数理统计或专家主观概率得到先验分布，通过抽样获取样本信息的条件分布；利用 Bayes 理论对先验分布和样本信息的条件分布综合后得到后验分布；利用全概率公式得到修正后的不安全事件发生的概率。从而获得了一种基于 Bayes 分析的空管安全概率评估方法。最后，通过算例证明了该方法的有效性。
이공관안전위연구대상，지재건립일투관우공관안전적개솔평고방법。수선종수학적각도，장공관불안전사건진행료개솔화표시；연후，근거 Bayes 정리，장공관안전적개솔평고분위3개계단：선험분포적학정、양본신식적획취화양본신식대선험분포적수정。구체연구방법위채용수리통계혹전가주관개솔득도선험분포，통과추양획취양본신식적조건분포；이용 Bayes 이론대선험분포화양본신식적조건분포종합후득도후험분포；이용전개솔공식득도수정후적불안전사건발생적개솔。종이획득료일충기우 Bayes 분석적공관안전개솔평고방법。최후，통과산예증명료해방법적유효성。
The aim of this paper is to build up a set of probability assessment methods about ATC safety,taking the ATC safety as research object.First of all,from the perspective of mathematics,randomization is made for the ATC unsafe events.Then, probability analysis about ATC unsafe events is divided into three phases:calculating prior distribution,obtaining conditional dis-tribution concerning sample information and calculating correction of the sample information to the prior distribution.The prior distribution is got by adopting mathematical statistics or expert consultation,while the conditional distribution of sample informa-tion is obtained through sampling.The probability of which ATC unsafe events occur is corrected by total probability formula, after using Bayes formula to calculate the posterior ditribution.Consequently,a probability assessment method about ATC safety based on Bayes analysis is achieved.Finally,a numerical example is used to illustrate the validity of the model proposed in this paper.