人民黄河
人民黃河
인민황하
Yellow River
2015年
11期
11-14
,共4页
小波分析%多时间尺度特征%降水量%洮河流域
小波分析%多時間呎度特徵%降水量%洮河流域
소파분석%다시간척도특정%강수량%조하류역
wavelet analysis%long-time scale characteristics%precipitation%Taohe River basin
基于洮河流域及周边雨量站点1956—2013年降水数据,采用小波分析方法分析了洮河流域近58 a来年降水量的变化趋势、多时间尺度主周期变化过程及其空间变化特征,并对未来态势进行了预测。结果表明：洮河流域年降水量整体呈减少趋势,倾向率为-4.60 mm/10 a；年降水量主要存在3个尺度的周期变化,分别为20、12、5 a,其中20 a尺度周期震荡最强且贯穿整个时域；流域降水量在空间上具有显著差异性,中部干旱黄土山丘区各尺度的周期波动明显强于上游的；对洮河流域未来一段时期降雨趋势的预测显示,除2017年降水偏少外,2014—2021年间其余年份的降水将处于正常水平或偏多。
基于洮河流域及週邊雨量站點1956—2013年降水數據,採用小波分析方法分析瞭洮河流域近58 a來年降水量的變化趨勢、多時間呎度主週期變化過程及其空間變化特徵,併對未來態勢進行瞭預測。結果錶明：洮河流域年降水量整體呈減少趨勢,傾嚮率為-4.60 mm/10 a；年降水量主要存在3箇呎度的週期變化,分彆為20、12、5 a,其中20 a呎度週期震盪最彊且貫穿整箇時域；流域降水量在空間上具有顯著差異性,中部榦旱黃土山丘區各呎度的週期波動明顯彊于上遊的；對洮河流域未來一段時期降雨趨勢的預測顯示,除2017年降水偏少外,2014—2021年間其餘年份的降水將處于正常水平或偏多。
기우조하류역급주변우량참점1956—2013년강수수거,채용소파분석방법분석료조하류역근58 a래년강수량적변화추세、다시간척도주주기변화과정급기공간변화특정,병대미래태세진행료예측。결과표명：조하류역년강수량정체정감소추세,경향솔위-4.60 mm/10 a；년강수량주요존재3개척도적주기변화,분별위20、12、5 a,기중20 a척도주기진탕최강차관천정개시역；류역강수량재공간상구유현저차이성,중부간한황토산구구각척도적주기파동명현강우상유적；대조하류역미래일단시기강우추세적예측현시,제2017년강수편소외,2014—2021년간기여년빈적강수장처우정상수평혹편다。
Based on the precipitation data of Taohe River basin and surrounding rain-gauges from 1956 to 2013 and using Wavelet analysis method, it involved precipitation changing trend of Taohe River basin during recent 58 a, the changing process of the long-time scale main cycle and its spatial variation characteristics, and the forecast analysis about its future trend. The results have shown that the overall annual precipitation in the Taohe River basin has a tendency to decrease at an average rate of -4. 60 mm/10 a. Then, periodic variation of annual precipitation has 3 scales of 20 a, 12 a and 5 a respectively, in which 20 a scale periodic oscillation is the strongest and goes through the whole time domain. Next, it has obvious difference in spatial distribution that the cycle fluctuation about each scale around downstream area is significantly stronger than that of the upstream region. Finally, expectation can be made that during the period of 2014-2021, except somewhat less in 2017, the rest of the years will be in the normal or somewhat higher years.
