CAJ | 학술논문

大中型拖拉机产量是一个复杂的非线性系统。为了探讨大中型拖拉机产量的变化规律及趋势预测，在分析分形理论原理和大中型拖拉机产量时间序列分形特性的基础上，构建了 R／S 分形模型，该模型具有较高的拟合度。最后，应用该模型预测了河南省2013－2015年大中型拖拉机的产量，可为农机企业调整产品结构和河南省农机部门制定农机动力发展规划提供参考。
대중형타랍궤산량시일개복잡적비선성계통。위료탐토대중형타랍궤산량적변화규률급추세예측，재분석분형이론원리화대중형타랍궤산량시간서렬분형특성적기출상，구건료 R／S 분형모형，해모형구유교고적의합도。최후，응용해모형예측료하남성2013－2015년대중형타랍궤적산량，가위농궤기업조정산품결구화하남성농궤부문제정농궤동력발전규화제공삼고。
The yield of large-medium-sized tractors is a complicated nonlinear system .In order to investigate the change law and trend prediction of big-medium-sized tractors yield , R/S fractal method is built based on the introduction of fractional theory and analyzing the fractal characteristic of large-medium-sized tractors yield time series , this prediction model could efficiently improve prediction accuracy .Finally , the model is used to predict the yield of large-medium-sized tractors in Henan province from 2013 to 2015 , the result will provide reference to adjust product structure and de-velop agriculture machinery power development plan .