CAJ | 학술논문

未来一段时期，我国经济发展将处于新常态，如何积极应对经济放缓和结构转型对高等教育财政经费保障的冲击成为当务之急。基于2001—2011年间的跨国数据，对世界主要国家高等教育财政投资状况进行比较分析，并利用面板时序数据计量模型来预测“十三五”期间（2016—2020年）我国高等教育财政投资的比例和规模。研究发现：（1）在2001—2011年间，我国高等教育生均财政性经费水平明显低于西方和亚洲发达国家；我国高等教育财政投资占 GDP 比例低于西方发达国家和主要发展中国家的平均水平，但明显高于亚洲发达国家的平均水平；我国高等教育财政经费占财政支出比例已超过西方和亚洲发达国家，但在一些年份仍然与主要发展中国家存在一定差距。（2）在“十三五”期间，若我国经济保持在中高增速（7.5％~7％），则高等教育财政投资占 GDP 比例的可行区间为0.8307％至0.8815％，高等教育财政投资规模的可行区间为985.26亿美元至1409.49亿美元。（3）同样在“十三五”期间，若我国经济增速在中低位运行（6.5％~6％），则高等教育财政投资占 GDP 比例的可行区间为0.8284％至0.8732％，高等教育财政投资规模的可行区间为964.26亿美元至1319.95亿美元。本研究认为，在“十三五”期间，应在确保高等教育财政经费占 GDP 比例不低于预测水平的前提下，保持高等教育生均经费逐年增长；同时，需要科学规划增量资金的使用方式，才能为保障我国高等教育事业的全面发展、提升高等教育国际影响力提供充足的财政支持。
미래일단시기，아국경제발전장처우신상태，여하적겁응대경제방완화결구전형대고등교육재정경비보장적충격성위당무지급。기우2001—2011년간적과국수거，대세계주요국가고등교육재정투자상황진행비교분석，병이용면판시서수거계량모형래예측“십삼오”기간（2016—2020년）아국고등교육재정투자적비례화규모。연구발현：（1）재2001—2011년간，아국고등교육생균재정성경비수평명현저우서방화아주발체국가；아국고등교육재정투자점 GDP 비례저우서방발체국가화주요발전중국가적평균수평，단명현고우아주발체국가적평균수평；아국고등교육재정경비점재정지출비례이초과서방화아주발체국가，단재일사년빈잉연여주요발전중국가존재일정차거。（2）재“십삼오”기간，약아국경제보지재중고증속（7.5％~7％），칙고등교육재정투자점 GDP 비례적가행구간위0.8307％지0.8815％，고등교육재정투자규모적가행구간위985.26억미원지1409.49억미원。（3）동양재“십삼오”기간，약아국경제증속재중저위운행（6.5％~6％），칙고등교육재정투자점 GDP 비례적가행구간위0.8284％지0.8732％，고등교육재정투자규모적가행구간위964.26억미원지1319.95억미원。본연구인위，재“십삼오”기간，응재학보고등교육재정경비점 GDP 비례불저우예측수평적전제하，보지고등교육생균경비축년증장；동시，수요과학규화증량자금적사용방식，재능위보장아국고등교육사업적전면발전、제승고등교육국제영향력제공충족적재정지지。
In the near future,the economic development of China will be in the new normal,and how to posi-tively respond to the shock of the economic slowdown and structure transformation to the government expenditure on higher education becomes the primary mission at hand. Based on the transnational data during 2001—2011,this paper conducts comparative analysis on the governmental higher education investment of major countries worldwide, and applies econometric model of panel time-series data to forecast the ratio and scale of Chinese government in-vestment on higher education during the 13th“Five-year Plan”(2016—2020). The main research findings are:(1)During 2001—2011,the per student government expenditure on higher education of China is much lower than that of Western or Asian developed countries;the ratio of government expenditure on higher education to GDP is much lower than that of Western developed countries and even that of major developing countries,but higher than that of Asian developed countries;the ratio of government expenditure on higher education to total public spending of China is higher than that of Western or Asian developed countries,but still lower than that of major developing countries in a few years.(2)During the 13th“Five-year Plan”,if China’s economic growth maintains its moder-ately high speed(7. 5% ~ 7% ),the feasible interval of ratio of government expenditure on higher education to GDP is between 0. 830 7% ~ 0. 881 5% ,and the feasible interval of government investment scale on higher educa-tion is between 98. 526 billion US dollars to 140. 949 billion US dollars.(3)In the similar manner during the 13th“Five-Year Plan”,if China’s economic growth slows down to the level of 6. 5% ~ 6% ,the feasible interval of ra-tio of government expenditure on higher education to GDP is between 0. 828 4% ~ 0. 873 2% ,and the feasible in-terval of government investment scale on higher education is between 96. 426 billion US dollars to 131. 995 billion US dollars. This research suggests that,during the 13th“Five-Year Plan”,it’s necessary to hold the precondition of guaranteeing the ratio of government expenditure on higher education not lower than the forecasting level,and to keep the per student government expenditure on higher education growing gradually every year. Meanwhile,it’s necessary to scientifically plan the methods of utilizing the incremental fund,in order to guarantee a sufficient fiscal support to the overall development of Chinese higher education,and its international influences.