CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用统计学方法建立不同乡镇高、低温预报模型，对新泰20个区域自动站的24小时日最高最低气温进行预报，通过对该市大监站与乡镇自动站温度观测资料对比分析，得出乡镇高低温与大监站的温度变化规律，以现有基础资料和数值预报产品和手段为依托，立足工作实际，综合应用数值预报解释应用技术，制作基于高分辨率数值预报模式精细到乡镇一级的短期高、低温预报，以期取得较好的社会效益。
본문채용통계학방법건립불동향진고、저온예보모형，대신태20개구역자동참적24소시일최고최저기온진행예보，통과대해시대감참여향진자동참온도관측자료대비분석，득출향진고저온여대감참적온도변화규률，이현유기출자료화수치예보산품화수단위의탁，립족공작실제，종합응용수치예보해석응용기술，제작기우고분변솔수치예보모식정세도향진일급적단기고、저온예보，이기취득교호적사회효익。
We used statistical methods to establish a temperature forecasting model for the 20 auto-monitoring stations in Xintai city. The regularity of the temperature variation between township monitoring station and city station was concluded by comparing the daily temperature data. Then we made a detailed analysis of the short-term temperature forecast in the township level.