CAJ | 학술논문

农业旱灾风险评估对提高旱灾防护有重要作用。基于信息扩散理论和ArcGIS技术，建立农业旱灾风险评估模型。以河南省为例，结合1990－2007年的统计资料，对其农业旱灾风险进行评估和分析。结果表明：①不同成灾率下旱灾风险空间分布存在差异，风险较高区主要分布在豫西、豫西南和豫中，豫南地区风险偏低；②从5％、10％、15％增长到20％的成灾率条件下，风险概率水平呈下降趋势；在5％～10％的成灾率下，旱灾的发生基本保持在1．33～2．75年一遇；在15％～20％的成灾率下，风险等级下降明显；③成灾率在10％以下时研究区多处于高、中高风险区，表明河南省农业旱灾风险一旦发生就会带来严重后果。该研究对河南省加强区域防灾减灾具有指导意义。
농업한재풍험평고대제고한재방호유중요작용。기우신식확산이론화ArcGIS기술，건립농업한재풍험평고모형。이하남성위례，결합1990－2007년적통계자료，대기농업한재풍험진행평고화분석。결과표명：①불동성재솔하한재풍험공간분포존재차이，풍험교고구주요분포재예서、예서남화예중，예남지구풍험편저；②종5％、10％、15％증장도20％적성재솔조건하，풍험개솔수평정하강추세；재5％～10％적성재솔하，한재적발생기본보지재1．33～2．75년일우；재15％～20％적성재솔하，풍험등급하강명현；③성재솔재10％이하시연구구다처우고、중고풍험구，표명하남성농업한재풍험일단발생취회대래엄중후과。해연구대하남성가강구역방재감재구유지도의의。
Agricultural drought risk assessment is of great significance in the improvement of drought management .In this study ,ag‐ricultural drought risk assessment model was established based on the information diffusion theory and ArcGIS technology .The sta‐tistical data between 1990 and 2007 was used to make drought risk assessment of Henan Province .Results showed that the spatial distribution of drought risk was varied in different hazard rate risk of Henan Province .Specifically ,the high risk areas were mainly distributed in western Henan ,the southwest and central regions ,while the risk in the south was low .With the increase in drought disaster losses rate from 5% ,10 % ,15% to 20 % ,the probability of disaster occurrence declined overall .When drought loss rate was between 5 % and 10% ,disaster risk degree decreased slowly ,and the frequency of drought occurrence remained at 1 .33 to 2 .75 years of a case .When drought loss rate was between 15 % and 20% ,frequency of drought occurrence dropped quickly .When the disaster losses rate was less than 10% ,most of the area was in high drought occurrence frequency ,suggesting a high degree of agri‐cultural drought risk in Henan Province and resulting in a serious consequence .The agricultural drought risk characteristics of Henan Province deepens our understanding of drought loss rate distribution ,and provides a guidance for regional disaster prevention and sustainable development .