CAJ | 학술논문

以南四湖流域24个雨量站1964－2008年的降水量资料为基础，采用经验正交函数（EO F ）分解和线性趋势估计分析了汛期降水的空间分布特征，并借助Spearman秩次相关法、小波分析和Mann－Kendall突变检验等方法，对流域汛期降水的多尺度时间演变规律进行了研究，初步预测了其未来变化特征，以期为南四湖流域的防洪决策调度提供参考。结果表明：南四湖流域不同地区的汛期降水具有较明显的空间分布特征，而时间演变趋势大致相同，整体呈线性递增的趋势，2008年以后汛期降水将处于偏丰状态。
이남사호류역24개우량참1964－2008년적강수량자료위기출，채용경험정교함수（EO F ）분해화선성추세고계분석료신기강수적공간분포특정，병차조Spearman질차상관법、소파분석화Mann－Kendall돌변검험등방법，대류역신기강수적다척도시간연변규률진행료연구，초보예측료기미래변화특정，이기위남사호류역적방홍결책조도제공삼고。결과표명：남사호류역불동지구적신기강수구유교명현적공간분포특정，이시간연변추세대치상동，정체정선성체증적추세，2008년이후신기강수장처우편봉상태。
According to precipitation data from 1964 to 2008 of 24 precipitation stations in Nansihu Basin ,this paper analyzes the spa‐tial distribution characteristics of precipitation in flood season ,which is based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and linear trend estimation .Furthermore ,the multi‐scale time evolution laws were studied by Spearman rank correlation ,wavelet a‐nalysis method and Mann Kendall mutation test ,the variation characteristics of the future were forecast later ,aiming at supporting the flood control dispatching in research area .The results show that :the spatial distribution characteristics are obvious and the time evolution trends are roughly the same in different regions in Nasihu Basin ,the precipitation of flood season has a linear increasing trend and will be in the overabundant state after 2008 .