CAJ | 학술논문

如何提高径流预报能力对洪水灾害和水资源有效开发利用具有极其重要的意义。然而，地表径流模拟受自然和人为因素影响，决定了径流模拟的变化性和复杂性。SCS-CN模型作为现行普适性降雨－径流模拟的重要工具，在结构和参数方面具有明显优势，但由于模型所需参数的不确定性使模型存在一定容错能力，从而影响模型预报精度。因此，从介绍模型原理及改进方法入手，以参数率定的新视角对全球不同流域尺度的SCS-CN模型应用研究进行总结和回顾，分析对比参数优化算法的优缺点，剖析模型内部结构和外部机理存在的不足，从而预估模型未来发展趋势向简单实用化和复杂化机理化两个方面发展。
여하제고경류예보능력대홍수재해화수자원유효개발이용구유겁기중요적의의。연이，지표경류모의수자연화인위인소영향，결정료경류모의적변화성화복잡성。SCS-CN모형작위현행보괄성강우－경류모의적중요공구，재결구화삼수방면구유명현우세，단유우모형소수삼수적불학정성사모형존재일정용착능력，종이영향모형예보정도。인차，종개소모형원리급개진방법입수，이삼수솔정적신시각대전구불동류역척도적SCS-CN모형응용연구진행총결화회고，분석대비삼수우화산법적우결점，부석모형내부결구화외부궤리존재적불족，종이예고모형미래발전추세향간단실용화화복잡화궤이화량개방면발전。
How to improve its ability to forecast runoff is of great benefit for flood disasters and water resources management .How‐ever ,the surface runoff simulation is influenced by natural and human factors .The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method is an important hydrological modeling .It is also complex and variable .Uncertainty of SCS‐CN model also makes the pa‐rameters require certain faults and affect the accuracy of the model prediction .Based on this consideration ,this paper has introduced the principle and improvement method of the SCS‐CN model and reviewed the research on the model application in different water‐sheds .Its advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed and the development direction of the model has been pointed out .