CAJ | 학술논문

在定义货运可靠性基础上，建立两种可靠性度量指标，以蚌埠—上海铁路集装箱运输链为研究对象，分析运输链可靠性，选取费用、时间和可靠性为效用函数特性变量构建多项 Logit 模型。通过对比可靠性价值和时间价值以及选择运输方式的影响因素弹性分析，得到当决策者选择货运方式时对货运可靠性更为敏感的结论。最后，根据实地调研提出改善铁路运输链服务属性的空间，并选取多项 Logit 模型测算属性改善后铁路运输链分担率的提升量。
재정의화운가고성기출상，건립량충가고성도량지표，이방부—상해철로집장상운수련위연구대상，분석운수련가고성，선취비용、시간화가고성위효용함수특성변량구건다항 Logit 모형。통과대비가고성개치화시간개치이급선택운수방식적영향인소탄성분석，득도당결책자선택화운방식시대화운가고성경위민감적결론。최후，근거실지조연제출개선철로운수련복무속성적공간，병선취다항 Logit 모형측산속성개선후철로운수련분담솔적제승량。
On the basis of the definition of freight transport reliability,two kinds of reliability measurement in-dicators were established.An analysis on the reliability of transport chain was conducted against Bengbu-shanghai railway container transport chain.Transport chain cost,time and reliability were selected as charac-teristic variables in utility function to construct Multinomial Logit Model.Comparison between the value of time and the value of reliability and analysis of elasticity of influence factors for transport mode selection showed that decision makers of freight transport mode choice were more sensitive to reliability compared with other influence factors.Finally,possible improvement for railway transport chain service properties based on field research was put forward.Railway transport chain share ratio increment after the improvement of its serv-ice was calculated using the constructed model.