中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2015年
11期
1274-1278
,共5页
刘可群%徐兴建%陈玉霞%李仁东%汤阳%魏凤华
劉可群%徐興建%陳玉霞%李仁東%湯暘%魏鳳華
류가군%서흥건%진옥하%리인동%탕양%위봉화
钉螺密度%活螺框出现率%冬季低温
釘螺密度%活螺框齣現率%鼕季低溫
정라밀도%활라광출현솔%동계저온
Oncomelania density%Frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania%Low temperature in winter
目的 研究自然条件下气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响,为控制血吸虫病及其钉螺扩散提供科学依据.方法 收集1990-2014年湖北省潜江市春季查螺资料及地面气象观测数据,采用一阶自回归分析方法对实际钉螺密度进行趋势拟合与分解,利用相关分析法对钉螺密度变化率与不同时段、不同气象要素进行相关性分析.结果 对钉螺密度影响最大的气象因子是温度,其次为降水;其中1月平均最低气温和冬季平均最低气温分别是钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率影响最大的温度因子;1月平均最低温度升高(或降低)1℃,将会导致钉螺密度上升(或下降)5.080%~ 6.710%;冬季平均最低温度升高(或降低)1℃,活螺框变化率上升(或下降)15.521%~15.928%.降水对钉螺密度影响最大的时段是上年11月至当年4月,该时段内降水偏少20%以上,有利于降低钉螺密度.9-11月日照与钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率存在一定相关性.在相关分析基础上分别建立了钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率与气象因子的统计回归模型.结论 在12月到来之前清除有螺区杂草有利于降低地表温度和土壤水分含量,能取得一定的灭螺效果.伴随全球气候变化湖北省冬季温度升高趋势明显,可能引发钉螺密度升高.
目的 研究自然條件下氣象因素對釘螺密度變化的影響,為控製血吸蟲病及其釘螺擴散提供科學依據.方法 收集1990-2014年湖北省潛江市春季查螺資料及地麵氣象觀測數據,採用一階自迴歸分析方法對實際釘螺密度進行趨勢擬閤與分解,利用相關分析法對釘螺密度變化率與不同時段、不同氣象要素進行相關性分析.結果 對釘螺密度影響最大的氣象因子是溫度,其次為降水;其中1月平均最低氣溫和鼕季平均最低氣溫分彆是釘螺密度變化率、活螺框變化率影響最大的溫度因子;1月平均最低溫度升高(或降低)1℃,將會導緻釘螺密度上升(或下降)5.080%~ 6.710%;鼕季平均最低溫度升高(或降低)1℃,活螺框變化率上升(或下降)15.521%~15.928%.降水對釘螺密度影響最大的時段是上年11月至噹年4月,該時段內降水偏少20%以上,有利于降低釘螺密度.9-11月日照與釘螺密度變化率、活螺框變化率存在一定相關性.在相關分析基礎上分彆建立瞭釘螺密度變化率、活螺框變化率與氣象因子的統計迴歸模型.結論 在12月到來之前清除有螺區雜草有利于降低地錶溫度和土壤水分含量,能取得一定的滅螺效果.伴隨全毬氣候變化湖北省鼕季溫度升高趨勢明顯,可能引髮釘螺密度升高.
목적 연구자연조건하기상인소대정라밀도변화적영향,위공제혈흡충병급기정라확산제공과학의거.방법 수집1990-2014년호북성잠강시춘계사라자료급지면기상관측수거,채용일계자회귀분석방법대실제정라밀도진행추세의합여분해,이용상관분석법대정라밀도변화솔여불동시단、불동기상요소진행상관성분석.결과 대정라밀도영향최대적기상인자시온도,기차위강수;기중1월평균최저기온화동계평균최저기온분별시정라밀도변화솔、활라광변화솔영향최대적온도인자;1월평균최저온도승고(혹강저)1℃,장회도치정라밀도상승(혹하강)5.080%~ 6.710%;동계평균최저온도승고(혹강저)1℃,활라광변화솔상승(혹하강)15.521%~15.928%.강수대정라밀도영향최대적시단시상년11월지당년4월,해시단내강수편소20%이상,유리우강저정라밀도.9-11월일조여정라밀도변화솔、활라광변화솔존재일정상관성.재상관분석기출상분별건립료정라밀도변화솔、활라광변화솔여기상인자적통계회귀모형.결론 재12월도래지전청제유라구잡초유리우강저지표온도화토양수분함량,능취득일정적멸라효과.반수전구기후변화호북성동계온도승고추세명현,가능인발정라밀도승고.
Objective To understand the influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density in natural condition and provide scientific evidence for the control of the spread of schistosomiasis and Oncomelania.Methods Based on the Oncomelania survey data in spring and ground meteorological observation data of Qianjiang from 1990 to 2014, the first-order autoregressive analysis method was used for trend fitting and disassemble, and the correlation between the change rate of Oncomelania density and various meteorological factors in different periods were analyzed.Results The greatest influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density was temperature,followed by precipitation.The average minimum temperature in January and from December to February had predominant influence on Oncomelania density and frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania (FORLO) respectively.The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature in January by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of Oncomelania density by 5.080%-6.710%;The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature from December to February by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of FORLO by 15.521%-15.928%.The period with the biggest influence of precipitation on Oncomelania density was from November to April, as the rainfall declined >20%, drought might occur, which would cause the reduction of Oncomelania density.Sunshine from September to November had some correlations with the change of Oncomelania density and FORLO.Statistical regression models for the change of Oncomelania density, FORLO and meteorological factors based on correlation analysis were established respectively.Conclusion Weed removal in Oncomelania areas before December is beneficial to reduce the surface temperature and soil moisture content, which would result in Oncomelania density reduction in some extent.It' s notable that the winter temperature is in rise in Hubei province along with global climate change, causing the Oncomelania density to increase, to which more attention should be paid.