CAJ | 학술논문

本文介绍了特征地震的对数正态分布模型、正态分布模型和布朗过程时间模型，提出了使用地震破裂面源模型的特征地震含时间的概率地震危险性分析理论和方法。通过具体算例对不同的特征地震模型进行了比较，并对特征地震危险性分析方法进行了系统探索。研究结果表明，特征地震含时间模型在复发周期早期的地震危险性低于不含时间模型，而在后期其地震危险性则高于不含时间模型。特征地震复发周期的对数正态分布模型与布朗过程时间模型计算得出的地震危险性差别不大。在未到期望复发时间时，正态分布模型与前两种模型计算的地震危险性差别不大；而接近期望复发时间及之后时段，正态分布模型计算的地震危险性则迅速增大。
본문개소료특정지진적대수정태분포모형、정태분포모형화포랑과정시간모형，제출료사용지진파렬면원모형적특정지진함시간적개솔지진위험성분석이론화방법。통과구체산례대불동적특정지진모형진행료비교，병대특정지진위험성분석방법진행료계통탐색。연구결과표명，특정지진함시간모형재복발주기조기적지진위험성저우불함시간모형，이재후기기지진위험성칙고우불함시간모형。특정지진복발주기적대수정태분포모형여포랑과정시간모형계산득출적지진위험성차별불대。재미도기망복발시간시，정태분포모형여전량충모형계산적지진위험성차별불대；이접근기망복발시간급지후시단，정태분포모형계산적지진위험성칙신속증대。
This paper introduces several kinds of characteristic earthquake models,which obey lognormal distribution,normal distribution and Brownian passage-time (BPT ), and then proposes the theory and method of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)of characteristic earth-quake based on seismic rupture surface model.Finally different characteristic earthquake models are compared through several examples,and the PSHA method of characteristic earthquake are systematically explored.The results indicate that the seismic hazard of time-dependent models of characteristic earth-quake in early periods of recurrence cycle is lower than that of time-independent model,and higher than that of time-independent model in later periods.The seismic hazard by using lognormal distribution model is similar to that by BPT model. Before expected recurrence time, the seismic hazard calculated by normal distribution model is similar to the two models mentioned above,but increases quickly near and beyond expected recurrence time.