经济与管理研究
經濟與管理研究
경제여관리연구
Research on Economics and Management
2015年
12期
26-31
,共6页
粮食价格指数%“十三五”预测
糧食價格指數%“十三五”預測
양식개격지수%“십삼오”예측
the grain price index%forecast during the 13 th five-year plan
粮食价格指数是衡量粮食价格变化的重要指标。由于国内外粮食价格指数之间不存在相关关系,单独预测国内粮食价格是可行的。本文在综合运用移动平均法和回归分析法的基础上,对“十三五”期间国内粮食价格指数进行了预测,并通过综合法得出最终的预测结果。结果表明,中国未来五年粮食价格指数为103.9,变化幅度较小。
糧食價格指數是衡量糧食價格變化的重要指標。由于國內外糧食價格指數之間不存在相關關繫,單獨預測國內糧食價格是可行的。本文在綜閤運用移動平均法和迴歸分析法的基礎上,對“十三五”期間國內糧食價格指數進行瞭預測,併通過綜閤法得齣最終的預測結果。結果錶明,中國未來五年糧食價格指數為103.9,變化幅度較小。
양식개격지수시형량양식개격변화적중요지표。유우국내외양식개격지수지간불존재상관관계,단독예측국내양식개격시가행적。본문재종합운용이동평균법화회귀분석법적기출상,대“십삼오”기간국내양식개격지수진행료예측,병통과종합법득출최종적예측결과。결과표명,중국미래오년양식개격지수위103.9,변화폭도교소。
The food price index is an important indicator to measure the grain prices changes.Since the domestic and foreign grain price index is not related,it is feasible to forecast the domestic grain price index.Using the moving average method and the regression analysis method,the paper forecasts the food price index during the 13 th five-year,and draws the final forecasting result according to the two methods'results.The results shows that in the next five years the grain price index is about 103.9,which is stable.