科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
Science Technology and Industry
2015年
11期
70-73
,共4页
原油%进口%影响因素%OLS多元回归
原油%進口%影響因素%OLS多元迴歸
원유%진구%영향인소%OLS다원회귀
crude oil%import%influencing factors%OLS multivariate regression
近年来,随着中国经济迅速发展,对原油的需求量不断加大,由于国内原油供给不足,中国原油进口数量持续增长,进口规模巨大,对外依存度逐年攀升,面临较大安全隐患。以1990~2013年相关数据为样本,采用OLS多元回归方法对影响中国原油进口贸易的因素进行实证分析。结果表明:世界原油产量、中国国内生产总值以及中国煤炭消费量是影响中国原油进口量的主要因素。据此,提出了相关建议。
近年來,隨著中國經濟迅速髮展,對原油的需求量不斷加大,由于國內原油供給不足,中國原油進口數量持續增長,進口規模巨大,對外依存度逐年攀升,麵臨較大安全隱患。以1990~2013年相關數據為樣本,採用OLS多元迴歸方法對影響中國原油進口貿易的因素進行實證分析。結果錶明:世界原油產量、中國國內生產總值以及中國煤炭消費量是影響中國原油進口量的主要因素。據此,提齣瞭相關建議。
근년래,수착중국경제신속발전,대원유적수구량불단가대,유우국내원유공급불족,중국원유진구수량지속증장,진구규모거대,대외의존도축년반승,면림교대안전은환。이1990~2013년상관수거위양본,채용OLS다원회귀방법대영향중국원유진구무역적인소진행실증분석。결과표명:세계원유산량、중국국내생산총치이급중국매탄소비량시영향중국원유진구량적주요인소。거차,제출료상관건의。
In recent years, as the rapid development of China’ s economy, demand for crude oil is also increasing constantly. But due to the shortage of do-mestic crude oil supply, China’ s crude oil import scale is huge and growing continuously, the dependence on foreign trades is rising year by year. This paper builds the econometric model by the method of OLS multivariate regression with the related data from 1990 to 2013, to find out the main factors which influ-ence China’ s crude oil import. The result shows that:the global crude oil production, China’ s GDP and coal consumption are the main factors. Finally this paper puts forward relevant recommendations.