CAJ | 학술논문

生产性服务业从制造业内部发展起来，又贯穿于制造业发展的始终。探索两者之间的相关性，对推动产业结构调整与经济结构调整具有重要意义。文章应用向量自回归模型(简称 VAR 模型)探讨了唐山生产性服务业和制造行业之间的互动关系。实证检验结果表明：唐山生产性服务业与制造业之间存在持久稳定的均衡关系，生产性服务业子行业对制造业具有不同的影响效果。唐山生产性服务业对制造业的冲击作用由积极变消极。建议选择性地发展生产性服务业，且政府应加大对生产性服务业的财政投入，注重相关人才培养，加快构建市场平台。
생산성복무업종제조업내부발전기래，우관천우제조업발전적시종。탐색량자지간적상관성，대추동산업결구조정여경제결구조정구유중요의의。문장응용향량자회귀모형(간칭 VAR 모형)탐토료당산생산성복무업화제조행업지간적호동관계。실증검험결과표명：당산생산성복무업여제조업지간존재지구은정적균형관계，생산성복무업자행업대제조업구유불동적영향효과。당산생산성복무업대제조업적충격작용유적겁변소겁。건의선택성지발전생산성복무업，차정부응가대대생산성복무업적재정투입，주중상관인재배양，가쾌구건시장평태。
Producer services derived from manufacturing industries,but are attached to it.It is of great significance for the promotion of both industrial structure adjustment and economic struc-ture adjustment to explore the correlation between them.The authors of this paper have studies the correlation between producer service industries and manufacturing industries in Tangshan through vector auto-regression model(VAR).The results show that there is a lasting and stable equilibrium relationship between the producer service industries and the manufacturing industries in Tangshan,that the influence of producer services sub-industries on the manufacturing indus-tries are many and varied,and that the impact of producer services on the manufacturing indus-tries in Tangshan is positive.The authors suggest that the government should increase the finan-cial investment in productive service industry and pay more attention to the personnel training, and accelerate the construction of the marketing platforms.