人民长江
人民長江
인민장강
Yangtze River
2015年
22期
112-115
,共4页
风险评价%云重心%网络层次分析法( ANP)%水电工程移民
風險評價%雲重心%網絡層次分析法( ANP)%水電工程移民
풍험평개%운중심%망락층차분석법( ANP)%수전공정이민
risk evaluation%cloud barycenter%analytic network process ( ANP)%hydropower engineering resettlement
为准确评价水电工程移民风险，从全寿命期的角度建立了包含规划设计、安置实施和后期扶持3个阶段的水电工程移民全寿命期风险评价指标体系。采用网络分析法( ANP)确定了评价指标权重，构建了基于云重心的水电工程移民全寿命期风险评价模型。该模型实现了专家决策从定性概念到定量数据的映射，通过定性评测的云发生器来确定水电工程移民全寿命期的风险等级，因而可以有效提高风险评价的拟合和预测精度。通过实例分析验证了该评价方法的可行性和有效性。
為準確評價水電工程移民風險，從全壽命期的角度建立瞭包含規劃設計、安置實施和後期扶持3箇階段的水電工程移民全壽命期風險評價指標體繫。採用網絡分析法( ANP)確定瞭評價指標權重，構建瞭基于雲重心的水電工程移民全壽命期風險評價模型。該模型實現瞭專傢決策從定性概唸到定量數據的映射，通過定性評測的雲髮生器來確定水電工程移民全壽命期的風險等級，因而可以有效提高風險評價的擬閤和預測精度。通過實例分析驗證瞭該評價方法的可行性和有效性。
위준학평개수전공정이민풍험，종전수명기적각도건립료포함규화설계、안치실시화후기부지3개계단적수전공정이민전수명기풍험평개지표체계。채용망락분석법( ANP)학정료평개지표권중，구건료기우운중심적수전공정이민전수명기풍험평개모형。해모형실현료전가결책종정성개념도정량수거적영사，통과정성평측적운발생기래학정수전공정이민전수명기적풍험등급，인이가이유효제고풍험평개적의합화예측정도。통과실례분석험증료해평개방법적가행성화유효성。
In order to evaluate the risk of hydropower engineering resettlement, a lifecycle risk evaluation index system for hy-dropower engineering resettlement with three stages of planning and design, resettlement implementation and later supporting is built. The ANP is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index, and the lifecycle risk evaluation model of hydropower engineering resettlement on the basis of cloud barycenter is proposed. The model realizes the mapping from the decision making of experts to the qualitative concepts, adopts the cloud generator of qualitative evaluation to define the risk levels of the lifecycle hy-dropower engineering resettlement. Thus it can improve the risk evaluation of fitting and prediction precision. The feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation method are verified through example analysis.
