CAJ | 학술논문

为促进金华市水资源合理开发，分别采用线性、多项式趋势分析模型、M-K检验法、滑动t检验模型、最大熵谱分析模型及径流年内分配分析法，对金华江金华站近50年来径流序列的趋势性、突变点、周期性和集中程度进行了分析研究。结果发现：金华站年均流量逐年增加，汛期增加不明显，非汛期增加较快，个别月均流量也有明显变化趋势；年均、汛期和个别月均流量有明显突变，非汛期流量无突变；月流量序列存在较明显的两个周期；径流量在20世纪后半叶年内分配较集中，在21世纪初则相对均匀，而且主要集中于第四季度。同时，从自然和人类活动方面分析了金华站径流影响因素，这些都将为金华市水资源开发利用提供坚实基础。
위촉진금화시수자원합리개발，분별채용선성、다항식추세분석모형、M-K검험법、활동t검험모형、최대적보분석모형급경류년내분배분석법，대금화강금화참근50년래경류서렬적추세성、돌변점、주기성화집중정도진행료분석연구。결과발현：금화참년균류량축년증가，신기증가불명현，비신기증가교쾌，개별월균류량야유명현변화추세；년균、신기화개별월균류량유명현돌변，비신기류량무돌변；월류량서렬존재교명현적량개주기；경류량재20세기후반협년내분배교집중，재21세기초칙상대균균，이차주요집중우제사계도。동시，종자연화인류활동방면분석료금화참경류영향인소，저사도장위금화시수자원개발이용제공견실기출。
Trend, change point, period and annual distribution of fifty years runoff at Jinhua station in Jin?hua River were investigated by using the Linear, polymerization, M-K test, Moving-t test, Maximum en?tropy spectrum analysis of periodic and annual distribution quantitative methods. It is found that the an?nual runoff increases year by year and the non-flood season runoff increases significantly. Some monthly runoff series have trends;the non-flood season runoff have no change point, but the annual, flood season and some monthly runoff have significant change points;the monthly runoff have two significant periods;the annual distribution of runoff is more concentrated in the second half of the 20th century, but smaller in 2000s; the annual runoff mainly concentrates in the fourth-quarter. Besides, the influence factors of runoff change are also analyzed from natural and human activities aspects in order to provide a solid foun?dation for the development and utilization of water resources in Jinhua City.